[NL2-NL10] NL5 - AJo - SB vs BU - flop broke?! - [01.28]

    • DavidDorky
      DavidDorky
      Platinum
      Joined: 18.07.2008 Posts: 5,537
      $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem
      PokerStars
      5 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      UTG ($7.23) 145bb
      CO ($3.63) 73bb
      BTN ($4.06) 81bb
      DavidDorky (SB) ($12.50) 250bb
      BB ($11.61) 232bb

      Pre-Flop: ($0.07, 5 players) DavidDorky is SB J:diamond: A:heart:
      2 folds, BTN calls $0.05, DavidDorky raises to $0.25, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.20

      Flop: A:diamond: 3:heart: K:heart: ($0.55, 2 players)
      DavidDorky bets $0.40, BTN raises to $1.75, DavidDorky raises to $3.10, BTN goes all-in $3.81, DavidDorky calls $0.71
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Villain: unknown (8 hands), 1-tabler recreational player.

      Easy flop broke or not?

      And why?


      Ty for the answers! :)
  • 2 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      With around 60bb or less this is a pretty easy broke spot here.
      With 80-100bb it gets tougher. Let's analyze a few things here

      1) Board: It's really hard for him to rep much. Assuming he raises AK/AQ/AA/KK preflop, I think we can consider AJ good here. Also, we have Ace of heart, which blocks off AhXh type of hands which are flipping against us.

      2) Opponent: We only know he's a limper. This basically makes him likelier to be passive. I'm also not sure how often he slowplays (underplays) his strong hands like AK/AA. Given that he did not limp/reraise, it's safe to assume he doesnt have AA/KK/AK about 90% of the time. Maybe he may have AQ?

      He only reps 33/A3 here IMO, and if he does it with draws (large sizing may mean that he's likelier to be on a draw perhaps?) and some worse AX then it's an easy all-in here.

      Considering all things, I think point 1 outweighs point 2, so I prefer going all-in.

      Thanks.
    • DavidDorky
      DavidDorky
      Platinum
      Joined: 18.07.2008 Posts: 5,537
      Really nice and clear analisys!

      Thank you very much! :)