[NL2-NL10] Is Call Fold -EV in Small Stakes in this situation

    • Greedyfly
      Greedyfly
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.04.2010 Posts: 213
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

      Known players:
      BB:
      $6.79
      UTG1:
      $4.00
      UTG2:
      $18.62
      MP1 (Hero):
      $10.65
      MP2:
      $10.00
      MP3:
      $10.00
      CO:
      $10.00
      BU:
      $10.16
      SB:
      $6.61


      Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J, J.
      UTG1 raises to $0.30, UTG2 folds, Hero calls $0.30, 5 folds, BB calls $0.20.

      Flop: ($0.95) 2, 3, 3 (3 players)
      BB checks, UTG1 bets $0.70, Hero calls $0.70, BB folds.

      Turn: ($2.35) 2 (2 players)
      UTG1 bets $3.00(All-In), Hero folds, UTG1 gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $2.35.

      Villain is 9/7 over 136 hands with a wtsd of 18% and a W$SD of 100%. He's raising from UTG so I assume his range is at min AQs+ Ako+ 99+.

      His double barrel range is probably even thinner on this board QQ+.

      Therefore is folding a bad play here and would you assign the same range to this player based on the information above?
  • 6 replies
    • cutegoldfish
      cutegoldfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      Maybe he has some AJ as well.

      I think he could play like that with AJ AQ 99 TT also and with that I'll call the turn.

      Sometimes they just don't know what to do with their hands and just shove it in.
    • Greedyfly
      Greedyfly
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.04.2010 Posts: 213
      A 9/7 from UTG? Do you not think you can eliminate AQ and AJ from his range on both the flop and turn? I was even discounting AJ preflop.

      Essentially 1010 and 99 is the only hands I have crushed where AK/AQ etc still has equity against me albeit a diminishing one.
    • cutegoldfish
      cutegoldfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      I have seen them shove AK AQ a fair number of times. They don't know what to do with their hands.

      Do you think AA would over bet the turn? Or is he more likely to want to bet smaller to get you into the pot?
    • Greedyfly
      Greedyfly
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.04.2010 Posts: 213
      I do. At micros I definitely do. But an UTG raise from a 9/7....Not so much.

      Make him a 30/20 or a 50/45 and I'll call off all day but for 30BB against someone shaping up to be (realise sample size is lowish but this coupled with no other outlandish features) I just don't see a good risk to reward call.

      Not trying to argue by the way and appreciate the help. Just making a discussion so I can begin to understand these things in real time.
    • cutegoldfish
      cutegoldfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      I think you could be right some of the time, will leave this open to comments from other judges.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,698
      Hi.

      Pot odds: 3/8.35 = 35.9%

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 31.14% 29.29% 1.85% JhJc
      MP3 68.86% 67.00% 1.85% TT+, AsKs, AsQs

      Seems like a fold to me, even if we do add in a few more bluffs in his range. Don't think you can go too wrong by making nitty folds vs nits.

      Thanks.