[NL2-NL10] Rush fr nl5

    • xoshix33
      xoshix33
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.09.2011 Posts: 348
      Full Tilt - $0.05 NL FAST - Holdem - 9 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      CO: 43.8 BB
      BTN: 137 BB
      SB: 90 BB
      BB: 148.6 BB
      UTG: 32 BB
      UTG+1: 45.8 BB
      Hero (UTG+2): 102.2 BB
      MP: 17.4 BB
      MP+1: 178.4 BB

      SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 9:club: 9:spade:

      fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, MP raises to 17.4 BB and is all-in, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 14.4 BB

      Flop: (36.2 BB, 2 players) 4:heart: A:spade: 6:club:

      Turn: (36.2 BB, 2 players) K:diamond:

      River: (36.2 BB, 2 players) 8:diamond:


      villain is unknown.
      i think its safe to assign him this range>
      Equity Win Tie
      SB 48.53% 47.93% 0.60% 9h9s
      BB 51.47% 50.87% 0.60% 77+, ATs+, KQs, ATo+, KQo

      and iam ahead 48% of the time, now with the pot odds i need 40% equity+ to make it profitable.
      i think its the best play here?
      also id like you to confirm if my calculations are right =P
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      Standard call IF you were in late positions. Do you really think an MP player would just randomly ship AT/KQ/AJ over your open raise?

      The range you assigned MP is just way too optimistic. I think it is a close spot.

      Let's check your pot odds here first. 14.4/36.2 = 39.8%

      Optimistic

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 41.33% 40.43% 0.90% 99
      MP3 58.67% 57.77% 0.90% 88+, AQs+, AQo+

      Pessimistic

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 32.91% 32.71% 0.20% 99
      MP3 67.09% 66.88% 0.20% TT+, AQs+, AKo

      I would err towards making a nitty fold here if I knew he was a short stacking reg. In my opinion, people don't just randomly shove crappy hands over you here when you are opening from early position.

      He could easily be a fish though (based on his stack size) and fishes with short stacks tend to push a whole bunch of weak hands.

      In conclusion, it's close and if I knew he was one-tabling I probably call it off here.

      Thanks.