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[NL20-NL50] [NL25 SH Z00M] Sizing throws plan out the window

    • StaticMoth
      Joined: 22.05.2009 Posts: 2,642

      Villain unknown

      Plan was to c/shove vs a standard cc-range of 88-JJ/AQ (sometimes even QQ/AK)

      We're obv crushing that range, all the pairs are almost always b/c broke and we let A-high take a stab.
      If we get it in vs 88-QQ and the occasional AQ :spade: we're 66% ahead

      Now the problem - I neglected to look@villains stacksize before.

      Under 100bb and he makes a stupid 3bb bet ...

      C/shoving now starts looking like a possible overplay coz he's doing a
      cheap stab/f if he has air and owns us if he's inducing.

      Tho I do expect this "inducer" to be unpolarized and still containing those same 99-JJ & pair+draw hands as well.

      Problem is that him being a fish, we'll have to put a whole lot more suited connectors and low pairs into his range that hit this hard.

      Vs the fish's possible get it in range we should be about a 46% underdog.

      So basically flipping in a 3bet pot - not horrible?

      Any better alternatives vs his sizing?

      $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem

      UTG ($29.01) 116bb
      UTG+1 ($14.96) 60bb
      StaticMoth (CO) ($25) 100bb
      BTN ($21.34) 85bb
      SB ($30.11) 120bb
      BB ($12.91) 52bb

      Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 6 players) StaticMoth is CO K:diamond: K:heart:
      1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.69, StaticMoth raises to $2.10, BTN calls $2.10, 2 folds, UTG+1 folds

      Flop: 7:spade: 6:diamond: 8:spade: ($5.24, 2 players)
      StaticMoth checks, BTN bets $0.75, $0.75 to StaticMoth ($22.9)?
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      He's obviously a fish given his stack size. No point checking at any point in time. Keep on betting, cos he makes the mistake of calling too much. At least, most fish can be assumed to be of the passive type.

      If he's a reg, then perhaps check/raising may make more sense, since the coldcalling range of a reg is way stronger in this spot and is much more weighted towards pocketpairs like 99-QQ here.

      We should hope he has a weaker overpair and a lot of the time he may just overplay it and raise/broke on the Flop.