[NL2-NL10] NL5 AA most profitable play?

    • SunWukung
      Joined: 12.03.2008 Posts: 28
      PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (7 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

      SB ($3.74)
      BB ($10.05)
      UTG ($7.31)
      MP1 ($11.38)
      MP2 ($2.56)
      Hero ($10)
      Button ($4.94)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with A:club: , A:spade: . Hero posts a blind of $0.05.
      1 fold, MP1 calls $0.05, MP2 raises to $0.15, Hero (poster) raises to $0.45, 3 folds, MP1 calls $0.40, MP2 raises to $2.56, Hero raises to $10, MP1 folds.

      Flop: ($13.08) J:club: , Q:spade: , Q:diamond: (2 players)

      Turn: ($13.08) J:spade: (2 players)

      River: ($13.08) 5:spade: (2 players)

      Final Pot: $5.64

      When I played this I just shoved after MP2 reraise all-in. I wanted to get rid off MP1, because aces lose value against more opponents, so I decided not to take any risk.

      But after the after-session analysis I'm in doubt if this was the most profitable of possible plays.

      First the ranges of my opponents. MP2 is clear I think. He is short and his all-in after my 3bet puts him on JJ+, AK.

      MP1 limps in, then calls 3bet, then folds to shove, I guess he was something like pocket pair up to JJ and less probably ATs+, AQ+, KQs.

      Now here's my first question: Do I consider the short stack alliner in my play or I take him as dead money?

      He's already all-in, so he's going all the way to showdown and if I'm outdrawn, so be it.

      So here I'm thinking if it wouldn't be more profitable to just call his all-in and not to reraise - to try to get some more money from MP1.

      If he decides not to play, he's going to fold 2.56$ as well as 10$, so I'm not losing any profit in that case.

      But if he has some likeable card for him and he's a bad player, he could be tempted to call 2.56$ or even shove (small possibility).

      If he calls, he either hits the flop or not.

      In the latter case, he's going to fold to my contibet, so I'm winning 2.56$ more.

      If he improves and his hand is better than mine, I'm going to lose 10$ because I'm probably not folding aces on this limits.

      So if he doesn't improve 4 times in 5, I'm even. Aces are 4:1 fav to random hand preflop, so I'm not losing here either. (and there is a chance he's going contibet without improved hand, so this could be +EV scenario as well)

      But he doesn't have a random hand. He'd call with pocket pair which he improves to set only 1 time in 8, or so. Or he has an AT+, which makes him even bigger dog to aces. And the fact, that the MP2 (shortstack) is probably blocking two of the high cards makes my aces even bigger fav.

      So it looks to me that just calling the all-in is more +EV than shoving.

      Am I right or did I overlook something? Or am I just making simple things too complicated? :-D

      Sorry for such huge post anyway.
  • 1 reply
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I´d shove with aces. If you just flatcall then you can face some ugly flops and you can´t smaller than push And since MP2 went raise/4-bet then he probably has also good hand (QQ+, AK) and he won´t fold to your push.