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[NL20-NL50] NL25 SH QTo

    • Csubakoppanny
      Joined: 14.12.2010 Posts: 4,265
      Party, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

      MP: $36.27 (145.1 bb)
      BB: $39.57 (158.3 bb)
      Hero (SB): $25 (100 bb)
      BTN: $45.23 (180.9 bb)
      CO: $25 (100 bb)
      UTG: $24.64 (98.6 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with Q T
      UTG calls $0.25, 3 folds, Hero raises to $1, BB calls $0.75, UTG calls $0.75

      Flop: ($3) 2 5 Q (3 players)
      Hero bets $2, BB calls $2, UTG folds

      Turn: ($7) 3 (2 players)
      Hero bets $4, BB calls $4

      River: ($15) 7 (2 players)
      Hero bets $5, BB raises to $10, Hero folds

      $25 pot ($1.25 rake)
      Final Board: 2 5 Q 3 7
      BB mucked and won $23.75 ($11.75 net)
      Hero mucked Q T and lost (-$12 net)

      BB play 51/1 within 3.7K hands.
      Do you think I can have a blockbet/thinvalue bet on the river? Or I can easily check/fold because he's not an aggro guy to bet there with bluffs?
  • 1 reply
    • w34z3l
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,332
      Hey Csubakoppanny,

      It's very strange UTG open limps looking at his stats. In 7666 hands he has never limped from EP. He's limped infrequently from other positions. You could probably use your database to work out exactly what type of hand he's holding. It's not mandatory to play QTo here, you will be OOP against 2 players, one guy who might be trapping and one guy who is possibly a calling station.

      On the flop I'd bet for value also.

      On the turn value is thin. You will get calls from one-card flush draws, things like A:h5 that got past the flop. Given that you have a weak pair and a weak draw, it may be a better option to check turn. His stats make him look pretty weak so hopefully he would even call again pretty wide with stuff like 8:c8 4:c5 6:c6. If this is not the case where is your value coming from apart from one-card flush-draws, most of which beat T draw by river? The upside to betting is that you protect your hand.

      I think river value is possibly too thin. Some of the time you might get a small amount of value specifically from PP's with a heart 8:c8, but most of the time villain is folding a non-flush hand or calling with a better flush. If he is passive, a better option may be to check/fold as you say.