[NL20-NL50] [SH][NL25] life of a station [KF3]

    • KillerFishes
      KillerFishes
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.07.2010 Posts: 2,313
      Heyo,

      PartyGaming - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BB: 108.16 BB
      UTG: 100 BB
      Hero (CO): 101.4 BB
      BTN: 109.76 BB
      SB: 100 BB

      SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 6:club: 7:club:

      UTG raises to 4 BB, Hero raises to 12.4 BB, BTN calls 12.4 BB, fold, fold, UTG calls 8.4 BB

      Flop: (38.6 BB, 3 players) 5:club: T:diamond: A:club:
      UTG bets 24.44 BB, Hero calls 24.44 BB, fold

      Turn: (87.48 BB, 2 players) 4:heart:
      UTG bets 55.4 BB, Hero raises to 64.56 BB and is all-in, UTG calls 7.76 BB and is all-in

      River: (213.8 BB, 2 players) 4:spade:

      UTG shows K:spade: A:spade: (Two Pair, Aces and Fours) (Pre 60%, Flop 60%, Turn 66%)
      Hero shows 6:club: 7:club: (One Pair, Fours) (Pre 40%, Flop 40%, Turn 34%)
      Hero wins 0 BB
      UTG wins 203.12 BB

      opp is a nitty reg, therefore I assume he's on a very strong range (AK,55,TT,ATs,slowplayed AA..) => He's never folding if I hit later => huge implied odds right?

      I guess that my problem is that I'm overall just thinking in terms of implied odds way too much - overrating them => being station, however, when I take it account how stationary is the whole limit I can't help myself :/

      Getting through the hand again I think I've made a HUGE mistake on the turn .. I got no fold equity and I pushed it when I know I'm behind.. => I'm stupid :/ It's only 7,76bb but I lost it just coz I'm stupid. He's always calling otr if I hit => I should have just called and fold unimproved so I can save a lot of money ... :)

      1) How do you count the implied odds so you don't become a station? :D
      2) Do you agree with me on the play that calling > shoving turn?
      E: I know that I'm actually getting good odds in this hand, I just used it as an example =) ..

      Thanks, cya
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      Preflop: This could be a fold, but if you think he folds a lot to 3bets you can just 3bet this. I tend to make smaller 3bets IP, and when he raises so large you can probably go even smaller. But it's part of your personal style/preference. I would make it 10-11 here.

      Flop: No other play but to call.

      Turn: You already realized this yourself. You are being offered 27.7% pot odds, you have about 30% equity with your OESFD vs a top pair type of hand. You should just call and then fold when you miss, and call when you hit.

      Thanks.
    • fortunewheel
      fortunewheel
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.09.2008 Posts: 309
      3bet blockers vs a nit. especially since he ahs alot of high cards utg. Turn is a f fold. He obv has more than just a one pair hand . ocassional set of tens as well, set of aces. 9 combos of AK, 12 AQ. IF he opens AT utg another 12 combos. So 33 combos that have you in bad shape. 3 combos of AAA 3 combos of TTT. Total of 39 combos that have you crushed. usually a standard nitty UTG opening range would be 66+ AQ+ and maybe ATs+. What is he calling 3 bets with pre? probably TT-QQ, AK. LOL.

      From a purely mathematical POV it's still a fold since he has 6 combo's with a redraw? set of tens , set of aces which have redraws to a boat , meaning some of ur flushouts are tarnished. You can probably go over the total amount of combo's he has and then weigh his total range. With rake included i'm sure it's always a fold on the turn.

      Calling flop with what intention? Sure this turncard improves your equity tremendously but what if you hit a card that doesn't help you? villain bets turn , hero folds. you are basically only realizing 50% of your flushdraw equity. Again that sucks hard. Secondly some turncards like for example Kc might look scary to villian. cuz it completes a gutshot and a fd. what if a 3rd club comes ont he turn and villain has a club, given all his high card hands , if he has a AK with the K clubs and u shove it in with ur babyflush , he still has 7 outs. There simply is no way this can ever be an EV+ spot.

      U say he is a nit , well then your 3 bet is monky spazz preflop. If he opens like 7% and defends at least 3.5% ur never being profitable in a vacuum preflop. SO ur basically saying , i'm 3 betting preflop cuz i can own him postflop? Oh rlly? let's investigate that further. usually he'll get it in if he is remotely aware of your 3 betting tendencies ( which seem aggro) with KK+ AK. wauw that's 2% of his nitrange. and he calls with another 1.5% which is crushing you. which would be TT JJ QQ. Not rlly a great spot.

      I think calling pre MIGHT be ok if you have very specific weak tight post flop reads on him. So that u don't rely on implied odds only to win the hand. I highly doubt it especially cuz even nits know how to 2nd barrel on some boards , especially if some turncards give them some equity. Even his Cbetting range in a single raised pot would be ridiculously strong if you count combo's and the price for you to float flops and take it away on the turn if he checks turns on boards like this. I'd simply fold pre for all reasons i mentioned up till now.


      I highly disagree with advise given. This is one of those spots where you are pricing yourself in by calling the flop. I'd rather fold the flop. Not spew more cuz off ' zomg odds to an obvious draw) then get owned even more if he ever manages to fold turns when you hit.

      Anyways if your read is TPTK or better i'm folding if the plan was primarily to profit directly from 3 betting preflop. Why else would you 3 bet a strong range? Because he is folding too much right? Call flop is dubious it's not ' standard' by all means.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Preflop:
      I agree with folding preflop mostly, your points are very valid. This is almost certainly a 3b/fold spot, I don't think calling is ever an option when
      -Hero is OOP vs 4 others
      -The raise size is so large at 4BB
      -The suited connector is low and weak so it's really hard to play without initiative

      Flop:
      He does not have as many draws as you think. Being a nit, he doesn't defend such a wide speculative range preflop. So giving him 6 combo draws is way too much. Given that the Ace of clubs is out, he can only have KcQc, KcJc, QcJc. Does he even necessarily defend all these combos pre?

      I also don't think he has a set of Aces. You are being overly pessimistic. In fact if people had top set, they are almost always going to slowplay. And I think this guy definitely 4bets preflop esp when BU cold calls the 3bet.

      Your point about him having something here most of the time is true, but he can have air here some % of the time

      Turn:

      I think the range given here is more realistic than the one you provided. We are committed here in calling, even if I add 55. Do remember that with only 1 card left to come, combo draws are not suffering so much against sets cos there are way fewer cards which can pair (only the Tc and 4c)

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 32.68% 32.68% 0.00% 7c6c
      MP3 67.32% 67.32% 0.00% TT, AQs+, KcQc, KcJc, AQo+

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 32.39% 32.39% 0.00% 7c6c
      MP3 67.61% 67.61% 0.00% TT, 55, AQs+, KcQc, KcJc, AQo+