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[NL20-NL50] NL20 SH 88 AQx vs bet tried to bluff

    • SPeedFANat1c
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,150
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($21.26)
      BB ($20.35)
      UTG ($35.19)
      CO ($19)
      BTN ($69.68)

      Dealt to Hero 8:spade: 8:heart:

      UTG raises to $0.40, fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.50, fold, UTG calls $1.10

      FLOP ($3.20) 4:club: Q:spade: A:spade:

      Hero checks, UTG bets $0.80, Hero raises to $2.20, UTG calls $1.40

      TURN ($7.60) 4:club: Q:spade: A:spade: 4:diamond:

      Hero checks, UTG checks

      RIVER ($7.60) 4:club: Q:spade: A:spade: 4:diamond: 5:spade:

      Hero checks, UTG checks

      76/38/1.4, fcbet 22 (9), raise cbet 22 (9), agg. freq flop 45 (22), 35 hands

      donk small on Qxx mono - weak, fold to raise

      I decided that hits can be a bluff, as the note said - this could be weak.

      The probke is that my raise does not rep much also, he might think I am bluffing when I did not cbet.

      So maybe better is to call and reevalluate. On the other hand - if he has PP lower than QQ, then he should fold. Or not - how do you think?
      BUt there are many Qx and Ax in his range, so bluff is not too good. Using this sizing on such board he might be trying to get value from my weak hands.
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      Dont 3bet 88. Even if 88 is ahead of his calling range equity wise, it is way too weak. 99 is the cutoff point for me. 8 is the middle card, and you get yourself into a lot of sticky situations. Call, and potcontrol if you have some medium showdown value, while bloating the pot if you hit something good.

      Just bet the flop once and give up. I don't get why you are checking (our hand is way too weak to play pot control) and we do not need to take such a line to bluff. I doubt he folds QX and AX here.

      So I will just turn it into a bluff and bet, hoping to take the pot down immediately

    • SPeedFANat1c
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,150
      Dont 3bet 88. Even if 88 is ahead of his calling range equity wise, it is way too weak.

      Interestning, now I am confused :)

      I remember I had discussion and searched for the thread:

      Nl16 Sh 99

      So here were these points against calling:

      I don't flat SB vs BU with players that play many hands in BB.

      Ok, this time BB is not a calling station, its a reg 24/17 who squezes rarely. But he should still call a lot getting such good odds and and at least vs me having position.

      I don't want to be OOP 3way so I play 3bet/fold in SB about 90% of the time, 100% as a default, just readjust depending on who BB is.

      If you call 88-TT and QJs, KQs you have a narrow and defined range, easy to play against that. It's probably not a -EV call pre here in a vacuum but if you do it long term and move up, you'll get owned A LOT.

      If you hit OOP it's hard to build a pot and stack the fish anyway, while on quite a few boards you have reverse implied odds with your set vs BUs wide range of 'anything connected'. He will have just about all straights and flushes in his range postflop while at the same time a lot of air that doesn't give you value when you flop your set. Set mining works when people pay you off. Wide ranges are too weak to pay you off.

      UTG in this hand is not a BTN, but I think he is not positionally aware, especially when he minraises and is having 38 PFR. So UTG range is wide and can hit straights, flushes.

      So it looks like completely different statements in this thread and in another thread. Or I don't understand something. Can you explain why these statements which I queted cannot apply in this hand?
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      Whatever Emanuel said is true, however
      1) 88 plays poorly in a re-raised pot
      2) You are playing NL25 so I am not too afraid of having a face-up range and getting abused by good regulars. Maybe if you play NL200+ then you can just 3bet or fold your entire range
      3) Villain opens from UTG. You get squeezed way less often.
      4) I think 88 plays ok in a multi-way, you can just set-mine mostly and occasionally win a showdown without having hit a set
      5) If villain has really high squeeze %, you can backraise all-in with your pocket pair