[NL20-NL50] NL20 SH AJ vs c/r Axx

    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,071
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
      SB ($8.18)
      BB ($38.21)
      UTG ($9.69)
      Hero ($24.52)
      BTN ($20)

      Dealt to Hero J:heart: A:spade:

      UTG raises to $0.60, Hero calls $0.60, fold, SB calls $0.50, fold

      FLOP ($2) A:heart: 6:diamond: 5:diamond:

      SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $1.70, SB folds, UTG raises to $3.40, Hero raises to $12.20, UTG calls $5.69 (AI)

      TURN ($20.18) A:heart: 6:diamond: 5:diamond: Q:heart:

      RIVER ($20.18) A:heart: 6:diamond: 5:diamond: Q:heart: 7:club:

      UTG
      36/25/1.5, ag. freq flop 32 (19)

      note
      small bet on turn and pot size bet on river - BLUFF OOP

      I think I cannot bet/fold. There are weaker Ax and nut FD posible and other draws and less than 50 bb stack.
  • 3 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Speed,

      If we were the preflop raiser I can see us stacking off here every time but since he takes the min/ck raise that's not as often a weak hand or bluffy hand.

      However if you've seen villain aggro and expect draws like 78/43/flushes to play like this we can go with the hand but it's thin. We can expect to have 0 FE when we shove often so that means we are putting in 7.39 to win 20.18 before rake so we need roughly 36.7% equity.

      What do you think our equity is versus his range and don't forget he can have AA, 65, 66, 55, A6, A5.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,071
      My guess would be that it is 30% at least. Now I will try with equilab.

      When I put him on this:

      KK-QQ,66-55,A5s+,KdQd,KdJd,QdJd,KdTd,QdTd,Kd9d,Qd9d,Kd8d,Qd8d,Kd7d,Qd7d,Kd6d,Qd6d,Kd5d,Qd5d,Ad4d,Kd4d,Qd4d,Ad3d,Kd3d,Qd3d,Ad2d,Kd2d,Qd2d,A5o+

      then I get 52%

      If remove KK, QQ, then have 48%

      If remove A7, A8o then 43%

      remove Q7s - Q2s - 42%

      remove K7s, K2s - 42%

      Narowed his range to this:
      66-55,A5s+,KdQd,KdJd,QdJd,KdTd,A9o+,A6o-A5o

      and this is 39% equity.

      So still having decent equity.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by SPeedFANat1c
      My guess would be that it is 30% at least. Now I will try with equilab.

      When I put him on this:

      KK-QQ,66-55,A5s+,KdQd,KdJd,QdJd,KdTd,QdTd,Kd9d,Qd9d,Kd8d,Qd8d,Kd7d,Qd7d,Kd6d,Qd6d,Kd5d,Qd5d,Ad4d,Kd4d,Qd4d,Ad3d,Kd3d,Qd3d,Ad2d,Kd2d,Qd2d,A5o+

      then I get 52%

      If remove KK, QQ, then have 48%

      If remove A7, A8o then 43%

      remove Q7s - Q2s - 42%

      remove K7s, K2s - 42%

      Narowed his range to this:
      66-55,A5s+,KdQd,KdJd,QdJd,KdTd,A9o+,A6o-A5o

      and this is 39% equity.

      So still having decent equity.
      With 0 FE we do need about 37% (plus rake) so with a narrow range of some draws, many Ax and sets we are break even. But that may still be optimistic though given his preflop + flop line. It's rare to see a fishy opener min ck/raise flop with a hand like A7s (without FD).