set probalities

    • racenutalways
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 172
      General question in regards of the possibility of flopping a set. From what I have read, you will be dealt a pair pre-flop 16:1, rounded to 6% of the time. Flopping a set 7.51:1, 11.75%. is this correct??

      So, after being dealt 6925 pairs over 118 147 hands played, we take 6925 X .1175= 813.7 sets flopped. Is this correct??

      I realize the odds are calculated over a large amount of hands. What is considered a large amount of hands??? 10 000, 100 000, 1 million being more accurate I am sure.

      The reason I am asking is I'm thinking about trying a new strategy, seeing that
      I am being rivered more times then I ever have in the month of July for some reason or another. I am thinking of employing the Hellmuth pair any position strategy and see just how sets square off for me as I have way too much bad luck, not just in poker, but life as well.

      I play at the lowest limit where there is an abundance of fish at all times.

      After 118 147 hands played, I was dealt a pair 6925 times and flopped a set 7.6% of the time.

      Do I need to accrue more hand history before getting an accurate reading? Will sets start paying off, or is this just normal??

      Any incite would be greatly appreciated.
  • 3 replies
    • TribunCaesar
      Joined: 29.04.2007 Posts: 13,264
      Hi racenutalways,

      your calculations seem to be correct. And it's good that you give attention to the theoretical basis of the game. Not getting paid out can have some reasons: bad luck, leaks in your game.

      Don't try to only win money by set mining but also in other spots. I can highly recommend to make use of our hand posting forums. Our experienced hand judges will look at your hands and give you feedback on the way you played them. This one is for NL small stakes:

      Furthermore I suggest to discuss you strategies with other players, this might help you even at dealing with down swings, which are a part of the game. We all have bad strikes where nothings seems to work out.

      I wish you all the best,
    • racenutalways
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 172
      Thanks for the reply, been there done that. No matter how I play my hands I get rivered more times then not. Pocket Ks in fact has lost 10 out of 16 times I was dealt in the last 2 days. Aces are doing exceptionally well. AKs and AQs is costing me way too much to even consider playing them aggressively.

      In fact I have lost holding the nuts on the turn and losing on the river 80% of the hands I play. Full Tilt will not allow me to win, I do much better on the Ipoker network and, LuckyAce don't punish me for holding premiums.

      I'm in the middle of a downswing that began exactly July 4th, and I am trying to minimize my losing as Full Tilt is making dang sure I don't build my bankroll using your starting capital. LOL!!!!

      Again, thanks for your reply.
    • brian997
      Joined: 07.04.2008 Posts: 475
      Originally posted by racenutalways
      What is considered a large amount of hands???
      Believe it or not, the calculation for odds often exceed 2 billion simulated hands :P
      Gotta love computers :P