[NL2-NL10] 2 14 aj

    • Dracsharp
      Dracsharp
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2010 Posts: 2,478
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($4.05)
      BB ($6.83)
      UTG ($9.27)
      Hero ($10.24)
      CO ($10.30)
      BTN ($11.54)

      Dealt to Hero A:diamond: J:club:

      fold, Hero raises to $0.30, fold, fold, SB calls $0.25, fold

      FLOP ($0.70) T:heart: 7:club: J:spade:

      SB checks, Hero bets $0.45, SB raises to $3.75 (AI), Hero calls $3.30

      TURN ($8.20) T:heart: 7:club: J:spade: K:spade:

      RIVER ($8.20) T:heart: 7:club: J:spade: K:spade: K:heart:

      SB shows 3:heart: J:heart:
      (Pre 28%, Flop 16.2%, Turn 6.8%)

      Hero shows A:diamond: J:club:
      (Pre 72%, Flop 83.8%, Turn 93.2%)

      Hero wins $7.66

  • 5 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Dracsharp,

      Preflop: looks fine

      Postflop: Given villains stack size and the board I'm not folding to his overbet shove.

      I doubt he raises 89 or sets/2p like this even though occasionally we'll see them.

      Well played.

      What's the worst jx we call here, or worse hand?
    • Dracsharp
      Dracsharp
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2010 Posts: 2,478
      KJ is the worst i would call here , qj is bet gets beaten by k,a,t, even 9,8 has some extra eq due to gs, and ofc 7 again beats us, and can't imagine worse.

      We don't really know his range he is overall passive and surely never did this before, and beside few gs not much draw potential apart from kq which could play like this with 2 over and oesd, but more likely misplayed 89,2p,set,tp

      Would you call kj, and would you call qj too ?
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by Dracsharp
      KJ is the worst i would call here , qj is bet gets beaten by k,a,t, even 9,8 has some extra eq due to gs, and ofc 7 again beats us, and can't imagine worse.

      We don't really know his range he is overall passive and surely never did this before, and beside few gs not much draw potential apart from kq which could play like this with 2 over and oesd, but more likely misplayed 89,2p,set,tp

      Would you call kj, and would you call qj too ?
      We do need 40% equity to make the call however I think that QJ is the lowest I'd go.

      If we add an optimistic range of 99-88,AJs-ATs,KJs-KTs,QJs,J9s-J2s,T8s+,AJo,KJo,QJo,J9o+,T9o we have 60% equity with QJhh, without backdoor we have 57% or so.

      Less optimistic we have around 50% with QJo (99,AJs,KJs-KTs,QJs,J9s-J7s,T8s+,AJo,KJo,QJo,J9o+,T9o).

      So I think that we can call QJo here. Of course I didn't include many massive made hands other than TJo. I think sets/straights and even top two would call or min raise often.
    • Dracsharp
      Dracsharp
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2010 Posts: 2,478
      I was not even that optimistic :)
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by Dracsharp
      I was not even that optimistic :)
      You see we can be even more pessimistic and we may get around breakeven unless we have any reason to include all the nutty hands in his range.