[NL2-NL10] NL10 88 oop flopped OESD

    • zachrina
      zachrina
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.12.2012 Posts: 934
      Hi,

      I am getting over 3 to 1 to call with my OESD on the turn against a guy with a vpip of 56 (small sample). Regardless of stats he has a short stack and I will more than likely be facing a call for the rest of his stack on the river. Should I call here as I am almost certain I will get the rest of his stack on the river?? Am I getting correct situation for implied odds here or will this just cost me money in the long run?

      Thanks,
      Zach

      Full Tilt, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      MP2: $14.78 (147.8 bb)
      MP3: $6.70 (67 bb)
      CO: $13.03 (130.3 bb)
      BTN: $4.99 (49.9 bb)
      SB: $6.53 (65.3 bb)
      Hero (BB): $21.01 (210.1 bb)
      UTG+1: $10 (100 bb)
      UTG+2: $7.72 (77.2 bb)
      MP1: $8.02 (80.2 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with 8 8
      UTG+1 raises to $0.35, 3 folds, MP3 calls $0.35, CO folds, BTN calls $0.35, SB folds, Hero calls $0.25

      Flop: ($1.45) 7 T 9 (4 players)
      Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks, BTN bets $0.80, Hero calls $0.80, 2 folds

      Turn: ($3.05) 4 (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $1.40, Hero folds

      Results:
      $3.05 pot ($0.20 rake)
      Final Board: 7 T 9 4
      BTN mucked and won $2.85 ($1.70 net)
      Hero mucked 8 8 and lost (-$1.15 net)
  • 1 reply
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,295
      Hey Zachrina,

      Villain has $2.45 left in his stack after he bets turn. Assume you stack him 100% of the time ---> You are calling $1.40 to win ($3.05 + $1.40 + $2.45) = $6.90. You are getting 6.90:1.4 implied odds. You need equity (1.4/ (6.90+1.4)) = 16% equity. You have 16% equity.

      If you always stacked villain when you hit, this would be a break even call. This is not the case though. Sometimes villain will fold. Other times villain will make a straight or flush and you will get stacked on the river. Fold turn is the correct option.