[NL20-NL50] qq nl50fr

    • franeczek
      franeczek
      Global
      Joined: 22.03.2009 Posts: 2,439
      Party, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 7 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      MP1: $50 (100 bb)
      Hero (SB): $50 (100 bb)
      MP2: $57.98 (116 bb)
      CO: $80.11 (160.2 bb)
      BB: $56.54 (113.1 bb)
      BTN: $56.30 (112.6 bb)
      MP3: $16.09 (32.2 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with Q Q
      2 folds, MP3 calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50, BTN folds, Hero raises to $2.50, BB calls $2, MP3 calls $2, CO calls $2

      Flop: ($10) 6 T 8 (4 players)
      Hero bets $8, BB calls $8, 2 folds

      Turn: ($26) A (2 players)
      Hero bets $13.35, BB calls $13.35

      River: ($52.70) 4 (2 players)
      Hero checks, BB bets $25.03, Hero folds

      Results:
      $52.70 pot ($2.63 rake)
      Final Board: 6 T 8 A 4
      Hero mucked Q Q and lost (-$23.85 net)
      BB mucked and won $50.07 ($26.22 net)



      Villian is a regular fish 23/10/28 (VPIP/PFr/AFQ) with farly big fold to cbet and 2nd barell (46% flop, 38% Turn) after 12k hands.
      Thoughts on Turn and River play?? Haven't catch him so far doing anything goofy on the river (he has like 48% bet vs missed cbet on the river tho) and there is not enough busted draws for me to justify a call.
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      Preflop seems fine, you can consider making it 3$ since you are OOP.

      Flop bet is standard, and I think you should bet the Turn too. Don't see too many AX hands in his range.

      River is interesting. We know that he rarely has a set or two pair cos in my opinion he should usually be raising Flop or Turn with those hands on such a coordinated Flop. On the river, there aren't too many busted draws. So that would make c/c a bad play.

      It all boils down to whether he calls twice with a hand like 89 and then turns it into a bluff? Or does he take his showdown value and try to check it down?

      He has no pure busted draw and I think he almost always has some sort of showdown value on the River (be it 6X 8X or TX). Question though, is whether he turns his weak made hands into bluffs by betting the River.

      I think it's safe to assume that he's not too likely to do so, and if he bets the River, he probably has AX at the very least, so c/f seems like the best play.

      Thanks.