[NL2-NL10] NL5 KK Fold on turn bet?

    • ramadas
      ramadas
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.09.2011 Posts: 462
      Would you fold on turn bet? I see this player as loose who likes to bet anything and 3betting, so I thought kings are often good

      Poker Stars $5.00 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players - View hand 2088971
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BB: $5.59 - VPIP: 8, PFR: 6, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 85
      UTG: $5.55 - VPIP: 11, PFR: 6, 3B: 0, AF: 1.0, Hands: 79
      UTG+1: $6.21 - VPIP: 59, PFR: 27, 3B: 9, AF: 3.1, Hands: 107
      MP: $5.60 - VPIP: 8, PFR: 7, 3B: 4, AF: 3.0, Hands: 137
      CO: $1.97 - VPIP: 5, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 20
      BTN: $4.94 - VPIP: 11, PFR: 8, 3B: 3, AF: 0.6, Hands: 95
      Hero (SB): $5.17 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 12, 3B: 3, AF: 2.3, Hands: 31538

      Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is SB with K :heart: K :spade:
      1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.15, 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.50, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.35

      Flop: ($1.05) 5 :diamond: 6 :heart: A :heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.45, UTG+1 calls $0.45

      Turn: ($1.95) 4 :club: (2 players)
      Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $0.55, Hero calls $0.55

      River: ($3.05) 2 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.45, UTG+1 raises to $2.90, Hero folds

      Final Pot: $5.95
      UTG+1 wins $5.70
      (Rake: $0.25)
  • 5 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      The advantage of checking

      The best play is to check here immediately. And our plan would be to c/c the Flop and Turn. River would be a guessing game but at least we don't just bet and isolate ourselves vs an Ace pair.

      UTG+1 seems like a really bad player based on his stats. So checking completely throws him off and he will think that we have nothing and start randomly bluffing with many of his hands.

      As played

      I think checking is significantly better than betting vs a weak opponent. But betting isn't that terrible of a play.

      Turn: The turn play is very reliant on his flop calling range. Look at his Fold to Flop cbet to see how wide his range is. If this number is well above 50%, I think his flop calling range is highly weighted towards better hands like AX.

      If this number of really low, like 35% or less, we can assume that he has a ton of nonsense here, including stuff like Td9d or KdQd, or KhJs. That would make a c/c significantly better on the Turn

      River: I don't like this play, randomly trying to rep the flush. I think an Ace never folds anyway. Just check it down and fold if he bets.
    • ramadas
      ramadas
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.09.2011 Posts: 462
      Fold to cbet is 58%, so he could have Ax
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Ok that fold to cbet is really high. So that makes betting the Flop much worse of a play, as we are not gaining value from worse hands, and we are just isolating ourselves vs a strong range of AX and draws.

      Since his range for calling our Flop cbet is so strong, we can just c/f the Turn.
    • ramadas
      ramadas
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.09.2011 Posts: 462
      My bet was to represent and Ace and see where I am at.

      I think after his turn bet, I should fold, but I just did not believe him. Now I am trying to be believer although more people bluff than on NL2.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      "My bet was to represent and Ace and see where I am at. "

      Don't you think that this is a pretty bad reason to bet the Flop?

      If he calls, you know you are almost always beat, and rarely ahead of his flush draws. He probably bluffs the Turn or River and we can't really call again.

      If he folds, we have the best hand. We gained nothing from his worse hands.

      Ultimately, we didn't gain value from worse hands, and we didn't bluff out better hands. As such, we didn't really achieve anything. We aren't too scared of any turn card anyway so I think betting for protection is not important.