[NL20-NL50] KQo turned TP, river value bet?

    • AchillesBG
      Joined: 06.02.2011 Posts: 4,586
      On Game, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      CO: $56.45 (112.9 bb)
      BTN: $55.32 (110.6 bb)
      SB: $29.60 (59.2 bb)
      BB: $59.02 (118 bb)
      UTG: $58.69 (117.4 bb)
      Hero (MP): $50 (100 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP with K:club: Q:heart:
      UTG folds, Hero raises to $1.50, 3 folds, BB calls $1

      Flop: ($3.25) 6:diamond: 7:spade: 7:club: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $2.10, BB calls $2.10

      Turn: ($7.45) Q:spade: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $5, BB calls $5

      River: ($17.45) J:spade: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $14, BB raises to $50.42 and is all-in, Hero folds

      Results: $45.45 pot ($2.27 rake)
      Final Board: 6:diamond: 7:spade: 7:club: Q:spade: J:spade:
      BB mucked and won $43.18 ($20.58 net)
      Hero mucked K:club: Q:heart: and lost (-$22.60 net)

      29/24 11,2% 3bet 1,5k hands. Fold to Cbet f/t/r 37/30/33(3). WTSD 18 46agg. freq., 25%(60) river

      We had some dynamics, but mainly preflop 3betting.

      Do i have a river value bet? I though with his low fold to Cbet, he can call me with 88-TT/QTs, but in this positions, maybe is better to check the river? I used the time bank and decided to make a bigger bet, to make it look like a bluff?
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      It could be a river value bet, if you have a reputation for barreling a lot. River sucks because Jack got there, and so did the backdoor flush draw. It would also be nasty if he turns a hand like 6X or AX into a bluff.

      You would need to know if
      1) He turns stuff into bluffs
      2) He has calling station tendencies

      I think if you have a sufficiently aggro image, then 2 may be true more often than not.

      And if the board was even lower, that would also be more favourable for you since on a 455r board, there are more overpairs like 66 and 77.

      WTSD seems low, so he is not having too many QX in his range besides AQ which beats you, and I think he is not calling river that often (either raising as a bluff or folding). This makes it more of a check I think, unless you are seen to be aggro.