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knowing your opponent(s) precisely ...but how?

    • kavboj84
      Joined: 16.06.2011 Posts: 2,173

      first things first, the reason why Im creating this thread:

      Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      Preflop: Hero is SB with 3 4
      MP calls, CO calls, BTN calls, Hero completes, BB checks

      Flop: (5 SB) 3 4 9 (5 players)
      Hero bets, BB folds, MP calls, CO calls, BTN calls

      Turn: (4.5 BB) 7 (4 players)
      Hero bets, MP calls, CO calls, BTN calls

      River: (8.5 BB) 5 (4 players)
      Hero bets, MP calls, CO calls, BTN raises, 2 folds, CO calls

      14.5 BB pot (0.4 BB rake)
      Final Board: 3 4 9 7 5
      CO showed 9 K and won 14.1 BB (10.1 BB net)
      BTN showed T 8 and lost (-4 BB net)
      Hero mucked 3 4 and lost (-3 BB net)
      MP mucked and lost (-3 BB net)

      BU is a preflop agro donk, postflop quite passive.

      Stats [VP/PRF/3b/FST/DBF/Ag/WTSD/W$/ (Handcount)]:

      53/21/2.9/27/1.1/44/52 (274)

      I think I saw almost every hand he showed down, I have tons of reads about him, , Im not going to put down here all, just give you a general image I had about the guys postflop play, which is the point.

      I almost never saw him bluffing , he is even passive in HU pots with top pair good kicker or weak two pairs if he can be dominated (3bet pot) or there is a chance that someone holds a straight or flush. He slowplays a lot but he fast played his set/two pair on draw heavy boards several times. So his raise is quite strong, I would say that when he raises he there is a 90% chance that he has the best hand.
      I saw him bluffing only once when he barreled three streets OOP with AQo two overcard in a HU pot on a dry one broadway low board, probably an overplay.
      And some additional info : in the session I played this particular hand he showed 2 runner runner straights/flushes and a slowplayed set which he played the same way except that those were HU and three way pots.

      So according to these I could never ever ever ever everever imagine him bluff raising a busted draw on the river in a 4 way pot. Nay I was completely sure that he had 6x.

      Im having problems with these type of guys recently, they bluffed me out several times, and I adjusted a little bit and now Im calling down a little looser, because I realized that some of these cunts use their image quite well and make unbelievable bluff raises with 0.5-1 AF values but Im still confused when I run into spots like these, cause I dont know if I catch bluffs in the optimal frequency. When I say optimal I dont mean GTO here, casue obviously I dont want to play balanced against a fish, but go for maximal exploitation. How can you be sure, or nearly sure, that you dont fold too much in spots like these when it is almost sure that the villain has the best hand but yet they show some bluffs which you wouldnt expect at all ?
  • 2 replies
    • stampman024
      Joined: 15.10.2009 Posts: 23
      I would ALWAYS call getting odds of 13.5/1 (implied odds of 15.5/1)
      As you said yourself, 10% chance he is bluffing.
      The only thing that might make me fold is the fact that MP and CO are still in the hand.

    • kavboj84
      Joined: 16.06.2011 Posts: 2,173
      yeah if it had not been a 4 way pot I would have called. But as I said I could never ever ever imagine him raising there with air. Never means no way, 0%, impossible. Cause what does he want ? Bluff out 3 guys by 13:1 ? He will never get 3 folds, not to mention that CO was a huge calling station, tho maybe he was not aware of that.