[NL20-NL50] KK against a turn raise at NL25

    • fotakis
      fotakis
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.11.2010 Posts: 88
      MP1 is a reg 18/14 fold Cbet:48% on 10K hands.

      According to Beluga theorem if you get raised on the turn, then you should fold all one pair hands. But why he raises on the turn if he made a full house? Slowplay and raise my possible bet on the river would be more profitable for him.
      On the other hand very few combinations that makes a full house would call me pre flop an on the flop. Some of them would have raise on the flop (TT, JJ, QQ, AQ, KQ) in order to charge the OESD. Some others, I suppose that they would have fold preflop (QJ, QT).

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      SB ($21.31)
      BB ($10.25)
      UTG ($28.26)
      UTG+1 ($14.75)
      Hero ($37.08)
      MP1 ($46.50)
      CO ($12.15)
      BTN ($10)

      Dealt to Hero K:diamond: K:club:

      fold, fold, Hero raises to $1, MP1 calls $1, fold, fold, fold, fold

      FLOP ($2.35) Q:spade: J:club: T:heart:

      Hero bets $1.50, MP1 calls $1.50

      TURN ($5.35) Q:spade: J:club: T:heart: Q:club:

      Hero bets $3.25, MP1 raises to $8.59, Hero calls $5.34

      RIVER ($22.53) Q:spade: J:club: T:heart: Q:club: 4:spade:

      Hero checks, MP1 bets $9.89, Hero calls $9.89
  • 4 replies
    • imfromsweden007
      imfromsweden007
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.10.2008 Posts: 726
      Hi,

      I would still fold turn for sure. He can certainly have hand such as TT-JJ, QJs or similar. He could be raising turn because he doesn't want the board to get scary on the river with an ace, king, nine, among others. It's also pretty unlikely he's bluffing here since you rep a lot of strength betting twice on this board.

      I think even valuebetting the turn seems optimistic. What are you expecting to get called by? Does he not have enough hands that beat us?

      And make it 3x preflop, not 4x.

      ifs
    • fotakis
      fotakis
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.11.2010 Posts: 88
      Ok, let's have a look at his turn raise range. Some combinations are not very likely to raise instead of some others and some of them are not very likely to have call our preflop and flop bet. In my opininon his range on the turn woluld look like (QJ, QT, JJ, TT, KQ, T9, 99, KK, AA,QQ, AQ, AK, JT, KJ, J9). These are totally 89 combinations. 43 of them beat us , so we have 52% equity. From that point of view isn't a call?
    • imfromsweden007
      imfromsweden007
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.10.2008 Posts: 726
      well I mean you're assuming for example he raises (or even has) every combo of T9 there. Anyone can make their own range in pokerstove to support their opinion, but that doesn't mean the range is correct. I would guess a more correct range would be:

      TT-JJ, QJ, QTs (even this is debatable), 98s, maybe one single combo of AJ as a bluff (very debatable). Vs this range we're pretty toast, so clear fold imo.
    • fotakis
      fotakis
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.11.2010 Posts: 88
      He had 99's.