[NL20-NL50] NL16SH ATs, going for 5betbluffshove

    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Poker Stars $16.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      MP: $16.00
      CO: $25.17
      BTN: $19.59
      Hero (SB): $16.08
      BB: $7.32
      UTG: $21.97

      Pre Flop: ($0.24) Hero is SB with A :spade: T :spade:
      2 folds, CO raises to $0.48, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.52, 1 fold, CO raises to $3.60, Hero raises to $16.08, CO calls $12.48

      Flop: ($32.32) J :spade: 3 :heart: K :heart: (2 players)

      Turn: ($32.32) 3 :diamond: (2 players)

      River: ($32.32) 4 :spade: (2 players)


      Villain is 27/21 on 77 hands with 44%COsteal, 50% BU steal and 43% SB steal. His 3bet is 7% so far and his fold to 3bet is 1/4 before this hand takes place.

      I think maybe I got carried away because I knew this was his second 4bet and thought this may be a rare situation where I could put in a 5bet bluff.

      Question; How can I possibly know if this is ok? If villain 4betting me a second time isn't enough info to put in a light 5bet, then what do I need to know in order to get it in? I have a balanced (1/3bluff 2/3value) 4bet range, but so far my 5bet range is almost entirely value. This is the 2nd time I recall that I've shoved 100BB effective with something less than JJ or AK (or maybe AQs)


      p.s. This is the math I'm aware of which caused me to shove;

      Axs vs JJ+ AKs AKo preflop = 30% (even vs KK+ I have 25% EQ)

      so I make 0.3 * ($32 - $1.5 rake) = $9.15 back each time I'm called.

      I shove $14.5 more into the pot which means 14.5-9.15 = $5.35 is risked by me, and as that is almost exactly the pot size I need aproximately 50% folds to be +EV which seems pretty good to me and quite reasonable here.


      The source for my 5betbluff theory is Ed Miller, so quite old-school perhaps?
  • 5 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,696
      Hi.

      With both of your sizings i think u need around 50% foldequity.

      It may be a little rash to jam here but i think his CO open range is really wide so it should be an acceptable play.
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Thanks, How do you construct your 5bet shove ranges mbml?

      I'm still assuming 100BB deep, When stacks get bigger my 4bet/5bet almost definitely goes out of the window.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,696
      Assuming both players are good and know how to adjust, we should probably aim for a 1:1 value:bluff ratio.

      Take a look at his opening range, multiply it by some sort of multiplier to get your 3bet range. This multiplier should be somewhere between 0.25-0.33

      So let's say someone opens 50% from the BU. Maybe we want to use a 15% 3bet range vs him (if we use a 0.3 X multiplier). 0.3 X 50% = 15%.

      If we want to use a 1:1 ratio, then 7.5% of hands should be value hands. Pick the top 7.5% of hands, which is probably 88+/AJ+ for value.

      Do we necessarily need to shove 88/99/AJ vs a 4bet? Look at his 4bet range from BU. Adjust your 5bet range based on how wide his actual 4bet range % is. If it's low, then I probably just shove fewer hands.

      I don't have exact numbers here, you could try to run some math calculations on your own.
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      oh, that's pretty cool, thanks a lot.

      So when it comes to 3betting, your can decide on a 3bet range based on villains open %. How would you change the weighting of said range when you take into account villains changing foldvs3bet%?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,696
      Well if he folds 100%, we use a 100% bluff range and flat all our monsters
      If he folds 0%, we use a 0% bluff range and 3bet many more value hands.

      With anything in between, you just skew it appropriately.