[NL2-NL10] AKo

    • metza
      metza
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220
      Full Tilt - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      BTN: $10.28
      SB: $16.09
      BB: $4.02
      Hero (UTG): $10.00
      CO: $10.75

      SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has K:heart: A:spade:

      Hero raises to $0.30, CO calls $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, SB calls $0.25, BB calls $0.20

      Flop: ($1.50, 5 players) 3:club: K:diamond: 4:club:
      SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $1.00, fold, BTN raises to $4.50, fold, fold, Hero raises to $9.70 and is all-in, BTN calls $5.20

      Turn: ($20.90, 2 players) T:club:

      River: ($20.90, 2 players) 7:club:

      Hero shows K:heart: A:spade: (One Pair, Kings) (Pre 70%, Flop 54%, Turn 0%)
      BTN shows J:club: K:club: (Flush, King High) (Pre 30%, Flop 46%, Turn 100%)
      BTN wins $19.51

      My first reaction is set, snapfold.

      But I have a decent amount of hands against this guy ( who plays 21/18/52/8/65), and his raise here is far bigger than he raises with sets. He would only go something like 2.75 if he had 33 or 44, I know this because I bet a FD against him and he didn't price me out, I hit and he stacked off with set. But then again we are in a multiway pot so likely he would raise bigger here with set than vs 1 opponent which the flush vs set hand was.

      Probably should have folded and just using results to justify the push. :f_biggrin:
  • 3 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi metza,

      Do you expect him to raise draws muliway here? Most people just call them unless they have a bigger one like he does. I also think that sets can still raise large because of the amount of people in the pot.

      I also don't expect bluffs or KQ type hands (without a draw).

      So what do you think our equity is versus his potential range here?
    • metza
      metza
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220
      Its hard because I think he will reraise some draws but not sure exactly which ones, so I plugged in a few ranges

      No sets, all nutFD and TP+FD, AK

      O 44.57% 32.86% 11.71% 65s, AcKc, AcQc, KcQc, AcJc, KcJc, AcTc, KcTc, Ac9c, Kc9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, 7c6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, AKo
      BU 55.43% 43.72% 11.71% AsKh

      Sets, nut fds, TP+FD

      CO 54.98% 45.61% 9.37% 44-33, 65s, AcKc, AcQc, KcQc, AcJc, KcJc, AcTc, KcTc, Ac9c, Kc9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, 7c6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, AKo
      BU 45.02% 35.65% 9.37% AsKh

      Only sets and TP+FD
      CO 54.29% 42.63% 11.66% 44-33, K9s+, 65s, AsKs, AcKc, AKo
      BU 45.71% 34.05% 11.66% AsKh

      It's hard because we're never in that great shape, but also never that far behind unless we give him some completely unrealistic range of KK+, 33-44. Also there is already $2.50 dead money, and $7 in the pot. Is folding really ok then with 45% equity?
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by metza
      Its hard because I think he will reraise some draws but not sure exactly which ones, so I plugged in a few ranges

      No sets, all nutFD and TP+FD, AK

      O 44.57% 32.86% 11.71% 65s, AcKc, AcQc, KcQc, AcJc, KcJc, AcTc, KcTc, Ac9c, Kc9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, 7c6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, AKo
      BU 55.43% 43.72% 11.71% AsKh

      Sets, nut fds, TP+FD

      CO 54.98% 45.61% 9.37% 44-33, 65s, AcKc, AcQc, KcQc, AcJc, KcJc, AcTc, KcTc, Ac9c, Kc9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, 7c6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, AKo
      BU 45.02% 35.65% 9.37% AsKh

      Only sets and TP+FD
      CO 54.29% 42.63% 11.66% 44-33, K9s+, 65s, AsKs, AcKc, AKo
      BU 45.71% 34.05% 11.66% AsKh

      It's hard because we're never in that great shape, but also never that far behind unless we give him some completely unrealistic range of KK+, 33-44. Also there is already $2.50 dead money, and $7 in the pot. Is folding really ok then with 45% equity?
      We need roughly 45% equity once we shove and assume 0 FE (this is after factoring in rake, it's 42% before rake).

      So our best case scenario is around the break even mark (as I would say the first range is unrealistic multiway). So the way I look at this is that Pair+draw (like KJ) is about a flip with us (us being slightly ahead) and sets are huge favorites. So I would say that stacking off there versus someone like him will be at best around break even and will be higher variance short term and then it may even out long term.

      And since we haven't invested a ton yet (only 13 BB) I can still see a fold as being an ok move.