[NL20-NL50] NL50sh - Interesting hand, BvB

    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Hello guys,

      I thought this was the perfect hand to tripple barrel with as a bluff on this board?

      Villain can fold some random pairs and maybe random KJ floats? So PP's and 9x? + there is a decent chance he raises Tx otf or ott

      Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 2091257
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      UTG: $57.64
      CO: $70.45
      BTN: $8.62
      Hero (SB): $54.85
      BB: $51.78

      Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with J :heart: Q :spade:
      3 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, BB calls $1

      Flop: ($3.00) T :diamond: 4 :club: T :club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $2, BB calls $2

      Turn: ($7.00) 9 :spade: (2 players)
      Hero bets $4.50, BB calls $4.50

      River: ($16.00) 6 :club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $9
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      It depends on his Flop+Turn+River Ranges. Using it as a general idea could be good though.

      Assuming his turn calling range still contains many pocketpairs and Ace highs, I think the River bet is certainly good as we get to fold out all those hands.

      If he has a wider range in BvB and is tighter in calling Flops and Turns, then I think his Turn calling range contains fewer AX. It will mostly comprise pocket pairs, TX, and flush draws. As a result, your river fold equity would be a lot lower.

      If board was T42cc9 then I would like a 3barrel a lot more as we can fold out TX as well. But on this board when the ten is paired, people are never folding trips.

      In conclusion, you roughly need to know how he plays with each different category of hand. If he folds the weaker hands mostly on the Flop or by the Turn, then the River bet doesn't have enough fold equity to make bluffing profitable.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Allright allright, I'm pbb going to much into the balance stuff :D . So we should never ever bluff here OTR ones we think he folds Ahi OTT?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Yeah that's right. If you actually tried counting combos of various parts of his range, you'll find that he has way more TX and flushes than pocket pairs.

      On the river, you are betting 9 into a pot of 25, so your bluff needs to work 36% of the time. We are only folding out 55/77/88, maybe 22/33. But he can also have KT AT JT QT T9 T8 T7s T6s and flushes. So I would think that he would not be folding enough on the River.

      thanks.