[NL20-NL50] NL50sh - 9Ts bluffing river?

    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Hello guys,

      One of the best rivers to bluff rolls of (Jc, Kc and Ac are the best I think).

      Villain plays 17/14 over 250 hands with 50% foldtocbet
      I think he could have some PP's? Although it's rlyyy tricky vs this guy, I don't know if he always bet turn with a Q because I have this history:
      - few hands before he was utg with KQ on KKJ flop, he bets flop but x/c turn 9 and river A

      I don't rly know. It's also easy to bluff to much in this spot right? Then which hands should we bluff?

      Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 2091258
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BTN: $50.00
      SB: $50.05
      BB: $50.00
      Hero (UTG): $66.13
      CO: $64.50

      Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG with 9 :diamond: T :diamond:
      Hero raises to $1.50, 1 fold, BTN calls $1.50, 2 folds

      Flop: ($3.75) Q :club: 2 :heart: 7 :club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.50, BTN calls $2.50

      Turn: ($8.75) 7 :spade: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN checks

      River: ($8.75) J :club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $5, BTN calls $5
  • 12 replies
    • cutegoldfish
      cutegoldfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      That flop is pretty dry so most of the times when he calls its usually 7 Q flush draw and once in a while he its something like 88 99.

      River completed the flush draw and the Q isn't folding and 7 is raising and all you are folding is the middle pocket pairs which is not such a big part of his range so ill check and give up the river.
    • mrFog
      mrFog
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.04.2012 Posts: 15
      How about overbetting the river.

      When he checks back the turn, i think you can exclude 7x out of his range. And a portion of the time he will bet his flushdraw on the turn. So a big portion of his range is mid pocketpairs, and Qx.

      I don't think he can call with much here on the river. I would bet river like $15
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Originally posted by mrFog
      How about overbetting the river.

      When he checks back the turn, i think you can exclude 7x out of his range. And a portion of the time he will bet his flushdraw on the turn. So a big portion of his range is mid pocketpairs, and Qx.

      I don't think he can call with much here on the river. I would bet river like $15
      That's a pretty good idea :f_grin: .
    • cutegoldfish
      cutegoldfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      I think his range is more Q than middle pocket pairs. How will they react differently to a 5 dollar bet and say 12 dollar bet?

      The pocket pairs are folding either way but how about the Q? People generally don't like folding top pairs. However if this guy has like a 5-10 % wts I don't mind trying.

      But do you think he folds a top pair to a over bet?
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Well that's the right question indeed, I can't say this fo sure but don't have guys with 17/14 stats a nitty mentality?
    • cutegoldfish
      cutegoldfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      Yeah that's pre flop and even if he's nitty you want him to fold out 2nd pairs, for an over bet to work you need him to fold like 60-70% of the time. Do you think he folds that often? His wts offers some insight.

      I'll do it if I saw him making tight folds before, but more likely not. Your money doesn't come from making nits fold top pairs.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      True true :P I didn't know too much about him (no correct wtsd info) so yes x/f river is the best play most likely

      Tyvm for you learnfull comments sir :)
    • cutegoldfish
      cutegoldfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      Good luck at the tables!
    • mrFog
      mrFog
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.04.2012 Posts: 15
      Originally posted by cutegoldfish
      I think his range is more Q than middle pocket pairs. How will they react differently to a 5 dollar bet and say 12 dollar bet?

      The pocket pairs are folding either way but how about the Q? People generally don't like folding top pairs. However if this guy has like a 5-10 % wts I don't mind trying.

      But do you think he folds a top pair to a over bet?
      When the flush completes, i think even a fish can find a fold with a toppair here. Also fish know that overbets on these stakes are usually for value. Against a regular it is even better imo


      edit:

      ah he is 17/14
      Seems solid. I like an overbet.

      Also the fact he does not bet the turn, i think you can exclude the stronger Qx partly out of his range, which makes his calling range tighter.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      He had AQ with Ac mrfog :P
    • mrFog
      mrFog
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.04.2012 Posts: 15
      Haha that's gay! Well i assume he will sometimes bet it, sometimes check it. Still i think he will hate his life if you overbet, him holding AQ. :P
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      You rep really narrow here. I don't like overbetting here and it should be used very sparingly, if even used at all. We mostly rep JJ here in my opinion. Overbetting a flush here is silly cos we don't get called by worse too often.