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[NL20-NL50] Fold turn?

    • maheepsangari
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      Prima, $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      Hero (BTN): $21.80 (109 bb) 9/7/2.0/0/40/91
      SB: $21.28 (106.4 bb) 13/13/6.0/3.3/67/93 Flop cbet%67
      BB: $20 (100 bb)
      UTG: $20.60 (103 bb)
      MP: $21.77 (108.9 bb)
      CO: $18.10 (90.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q Q
      3 folds, Hero raises to $0.60, SB raises to $2.10, BB folds, Hero calls $1.50

      his 3bet% is really low, I think he's nitty enough to do this with AK,QQ+ type of range. I don't want to shove against that range as at best I'm flipping. So I decide to call IP and see the flop.

      Flop: ($4.40) 9 9 5 (2 players)
      SB bets $2.40, Hero calls $2.40

      I think he can cbet his whole 3bet range. I decide to call with my overpair.

      Turn: ($9.20) 9 (2 players)
      SB bets $5, Hero folds

      I think he'll x/f or maybe x/c AK type of overcard broadways. He will bet with AA,KK,QQ and I decide to fold as I think he'll shove river if i call and i'll mostly see AA,KK
  • 1 reply
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Mahee,

      First off I think you are basing your decision on too small of a sample size. We only have 93 hands on him and I doubt he will only 3-bget AK, QQ+ at 20nl SH SB vs BTN.

      To add more to my argument look at your stats over the same sample. 9/7. Are you really that nitty? I doubt so but it can happen due to a run of cards or table conditions (or a mix).

      A lot of the value of your 4-bet will come from picking up the pot and unless he only shoves KK+, we are still at least breakeven if we call his 5-bet. So I would still 4-bet/call.

      As played I agree that his bet is most likely not a bluff or AK/AQ type hands because he can't assume we are folding any pairs. And since we can't see many TT/JJ in his 3-bet we can make a tight fold (although I can see him 3-betting some JJ).