[NL20-NL50] NL50sh - What is villain his range here?

    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Hey!

      On the flop I wasn't rly sure wheter to CB or not.

      The guy who opens is a huge fish (did openshove 23s) and thus I see value vs him OTF (he goes broke with any Ax).

      The villain who coldcalls: 22/18/94h no other specific info. He tanked a bit before calling pre and his range could be TT, JJ, QQ, AK and maybe KK+. I thought there were enough AK combo's in his range to make a small CB +EV here? I didn't think he could call here with a GS with the small SPR and vs my strong range.

      Bluffing him of a splitt is always good right? If we check I fear he could bet AK and thus bluff us of a splitt.

      Not sure towards which hands his range is weighted though.

      Poker Stars $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2091896
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BTN: $51.60 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 18, 3B: 7, AF: 7.0, Hands: 94
      SB: $60.47 - VPIP: 6, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 16
      BB: $50.00 - VPIP: 24, PFR: 20, 3B: 6, AF: 2.5, Hands: 376
      UTG: $50.97 - VPIP: 26, PFR: 20, 3B: 5, AF: 3.2, Hands: 598
      MP: $20.58 - VPIP: 45, PFR: 36, 3B: 50, AF: 0.0, Hands: 11
      Hero (CO): $50.75 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 15, 3B: 6, AF: 3.7, Hands: 604271

      Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with K :heart: A :club:
      1 fold, MP raises to $2, Hero raises to $6.50, BTN calls $6.50, 2 folds, MP calls $4.50

      Flop: ($20.25) 4 :club: 5 :heart: 2 :diamond: (3 players)
      MP checks, Hero bets $9.50, BTN calls $9.50, MP folds

      Turn: ($39.25) 4 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $35.60, Hero folds
  • 23 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Farma,

      Considering that PFR is short and fishy I think that BTNs range is on the stronger side here. I'd say JJ+ (max 18 combos) and some AK (max 9 combos).

      While I agree that his AKs would fold I feel that his range is weighted towards big pairs a lot more so I'm not a huge fan of the cbet there.

      If all combos listed above are in his range then he has 1/3 AK and we need our cbet (versus him, assuming MP folds) to work at least 33% of the time. So not that great of a spot.

      I also doubt he would bluff the flop with both of you still in often so AK may check back a lot.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      While I agree that his AKs would fold I feel that his range is weighted towards big pairs a lot more so I'm not a huge fan of the cbet there.


      Yeah I was also thinking this while I was tanking and in the end I did it after all since I didn't have to bet too big and have some outs if called. Problem is pbb that he could have KK+


      I also doubt he would bluff the flop with both of you still in often so AK may check back a lot.


      I think he has a vbet vs the fish with AK there :tongue:
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by Farmarchist
      While I agree that his AKs would fold I feel that his range is weighted towards big pairs a lot more so I'm not a huge fan of the cbet there.


      Yeah I was also thinking this while I was tanking and in the end I did it after all since I didn't have to bet too big and have some outs if called. Problem is pbb that he could have KK+


      I also doubt he would bluff the flop with both of you still in often so AK may check back a lot.


      I think he has a vbet vs the fish with AK there :tongue:
      While he could bet most people are still scared to bet it 3-way.

      Would you bet AKo, how about AKs?
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      I would bet AK in his spot :rolleyes:
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by Farmarchist
      I would bet AK in his spot :rolleyes:
      Good, especially the ones with backdoors and all we need to bet is enough to put shortie in.

      Now looking at it he may actually bet because there's a gutshot on the flop too (I missed that the first time around). But still there aren't as many AK combos as there are potential pairs.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      I know there aren't as many but our bet need to work like 25% of the time? Don't know the math tho... + we get value from te fish so maybe even less
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by Farmarchist
      I know there aren't as many but our bet need to work like 25% of the time? Don't know the math tho... + we get value from te fish so maybe even less
      You are risking ~1/2 pot to win a full pot so you are investing a 3rd of the total money and thus it needs to work 33% of the time. Of course this does not factor in our equity on later streets.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Indeed so with other factors it needs to work 25% of the time.

      Do you think it will?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,698
      Against typical ranges in this preflop spot vs 2 opponents, you are getting close to 0% fold equity on the Flop.

      Don't bet Ak here, unless you had the intention of shoving the Turn (and expect to get credit for KK/AA).
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      So what does BTN his range looks like?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,698
      Do you think BU is coming in, paying 6.50$ (13bb) preflop with a weak range of hands? Obviously not!!!

      So his range is going to be very narrowly defined, as 99-QQ, AK, maybe AQs, and AK/AA/KK occasionally.

      Vs such a range, I don't see him folding a single hand on the Flop. Even AQ has 2 overcards and a gutshot.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Ohh I thought he would be folding AQ and AK for sure?! SPR is so small and he has reversed implieds vs my strong range?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,698
      Well even if he doesn't have AK and AQ, he has pocket pairs. You still don't have any fold equity vs pocket pairs unless you multi-barrel.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Okay I'll try to explain with equilab..

      His prefloprange should be approx this:

      QQ-JJ, AdAh, AdAs, KdKs, TdTh, TdTs, TdTc, AdQd, AdKs, AdKc, AhKd, AhKs, AhKc, AsKd, AsKc (26combo's)

      Discounted KK+, AK, AQ and TT. All combos of JJ-QQ.

      I'll give him credit for calling 2 combo's of AK and also give him credit for folding 2 combo's of TT.

      Which makes his continuing range:
      QQ-JJ, AdAh, AdAs, KdKs, TdTh, AhKd, AsKd (18combo's)

      Our bet needs to work like MAXIMUM 25% since we also get value from fish (he'll go broke with worse hands than AK). So we need him to fold like 6 combo's while he folds pbb 8 combo's.

      :f_cool:
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by Farmarchist
      Okay I'll try to explain with equilab..

      His prefloprange should be approx this:

      QQ-JJ, AdAh, AdAs, KdKs, TdTh, TdTs, TdTc, AdQd, AdKs, AdKc, AhKd, AhKs, AhKc, AsKd, AsKc (26combo's)

      Discounted KK+, AK, AQ and TT. All combos of JJ-QQ.

      I'll give him credit for calling 2 combo's of AK and also give him credit for folding 2 combo's of TT.

      Which makes his continuing range:
      QQ-JJ, AdAh, AdAs, KdKs, TdTh, AhKd, AsKd (18combo's)

      Our bet needs to work like MAXIMUM 25% since we also get value from fish (he'll go broke with worse hands than AK). So we need him to fold like 6 combo's while he folds pbb 8 combo's.

      :f_cool:
      That's your best case scenario.

      We don't actually no if the fish will call that many worse hands and we know that our bet, without taking into account the other streets, has to work 33% of the time.

      As I mentioned before, without counting TT, he can have a maximum of 18 combos of JJ+. AK, because we hold A and K is a max of 9 combos.

      So if he were to call all JJ+ and all AK+ preflop he'd have 33% AK.
      Now if we add some TT it gets worse.

      So as you can see even our best case scenario is not that great and the worst case scenario of him calling just PPs preflop and AKs is really bad for us.

      So whenever the best case scenario is not great and worse case is really bad I don't generally play it. Because usually you will be somewhere inbetween the worse and best and that's not good enough for us.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
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      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      I get it :) ty for the good explanation! We indeed can't rly assume he's calling all AK's there cause it plays still poorly. I think that it's better for him to 4bet AK?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,698
      I don't think it's too relevant. Regardless of your assumptions, his preflop range is dominated by AX and pocket pairs. None of those hands are folding the Flop. Even if u include a few combos of JTs KQs KJs QJs, it still isn't enough to justify betting once and giving up.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Okay cool. What would you advise tho if we were him and had AK preflop?
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by Farmarchist
      Okay cool. What would you advise tho if we were him and had AK preflop?
      MP is a fish and short so the player 3-betting him (us in the previous example) can have a very wide value range.

      Thus AK should be a cold 4-bet imo for value.
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