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[NL20-NL50] nl20sh ATs

    • lodinn
      Joined: 04.10.2010 Posts: 1,276
      Anon-tables. Fi had like 25/11 WTSD 0, 2.0 agf over 70 hands. no other reads or stats that I can remember. Didn't want to bet turn as if I get called im mostly ahead, I fold out air/draws that can bluff river and I do expect to get c/r here sometimes?

      On the river, I don't think he reps much else than KJ,KQ, sets and rarely AQ(?). Doubt he valuebets a jack here. So, is it ok to bluffcatch vs missed draws?

      Prima, $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BB: $16.10 (80.5 bb)
      Hero (MP): $27.71 (138.5 bb)
      CO: $20 (100 bb)
      BTN: $23.86 (119.3 bb)
      SB: $20 (100 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP with A T
      Hero raises to $0.60, 3 folds, BB calls $0.40

      Flop: ($1.30) J 3 T (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.90, BB calls $0.90

      Turn: ($3.10) K (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero checks

      River: ($3.10) 4 (2 players)
      BB bets $2.30, Hero calls $2.30

      $7.70 pot ($0.38 rake)
      Final Board: J 3 T K 4
      BB showed 7 5 and lost (-$3.80 net)
      Hero showed A T and won $7.32 ($3.52 net)
  • 1 reply
    • w34z3l
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,332
      Hey Lodinn,

      Preflop is fine.

      Flop is ok, there are a decent amount of draws that can call you, and some worse Tx.

      I agree with your comments on turn. You don't get called by worse often enough and some of villains range has improved. KTs,KJs,KQ,AQ, maybe AK/Q9s.

      River is close. I'd probably fold. It's not just a question of which hands villain gets to the river with but also whether he'd bluff those hands. You need to have best hand around 30%.

      He can potentially be value betting KTs/KJs/KQ/AQ/Q9/JJ/TT (49 combos). In his bluff range he can have 89s and a bunch of suited connectors and one-gappers in spades. (I wouldn't necessarily include one-gappers in his calling range, but he obviously has them). I'd estimate this would amount to about 17 combos of bluffing hands.

      If he ALWAYS bluffed and ALWAYS had a bunch of low suited gappers in his range he'd probably only be bluffing 25% of the time given the combinatorics. Not enough to call.