NL500 Zoom. c/c c/c donk jam

    • pleno1
      pleno1
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 19.11.2010 Posts: 5,596
      Limper is a fish of course, no reads on reg.

      $2.50/$5 No Limit Holdem
      PokerStars
      6 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      UTG iznak ($175.77) 35bb
      UTG+1 lafumeta13 ($491.21) 98bb
      CO Claudjuh79 ($606.49) 121bb
      BTN ExB1983 ($1,003.37) 201bb
      SB pleno1 ($575.56) 115bb
      BB PrsLee ($1,559.24) 312bb

      Pre-Flop: ($7.50, 6 players) pleno1 is SB K:club: Q:diamond:
      1 fold, lafumeta13 calls $5, 1 fold, ExB1983 raises to $20, pleno1 calls $17.50, 1 fold, lafumeta13 calls $15

      Flop: Q:club: 2:club: 2:heart: ($65, 3 players)
      pleno1 checks, lafumeta13 checks, ExB1983 bets $40, pleno1 calls $40, lafumeta13 calls $40

      Turn: K:heart: ($185, 3 players)
      pleno1 checks, lafumeta13 checks, ExB1983 bets $136.65, pleno1 calls $136.65, lafumeta13 folds

      River: 8:heart: ($458.30, 2 players)
      pleno1 ?
  • 9 replies
    • getdotacom
      getdotacom
      Black
      Joined: 06.04.2008 Posts: 607
      I like leading flop to get max value from a fish here.
      As played I like c/c river. Donk jamming looks weird and I think he will call by better more often than by worse. He's shoving himself any bluff IMO. Actually we could do the math here - if he's calling by lets say AQ+ it's 8 combos of AQ and we could give him something around 30 combos of Kx, it's 38 combos total we beat. Then we lose to AA,KK,QQ,22,A2s,K2s which is 13 combos + 21 combos of flush, it's 34 total, not sure about his ISO range, I gave him Kxs+,Q7s+,J8s+,T8s+ and scs down to 54s. We could decrease this number of flushes, but we actually don't know how he plays AQ, maybe he's not betting the turn or maybe folding to our donkbet, so this looks really close. I think bluffcatching has more EV than donk shoving, most likely he's going to bet AK himself for value and he has a loooot of bluffs to shove.
    • pleno1
      pleno1
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 19.11.2010 Posts: 5,596
      So, general questions.

      Thoughts on his river reaction vs a bet? (I wish I had switcherood it :D )

      I've spoken to some very good players about this hand. I've heard.

      - Will fold AA vs river bet
      - Will call AQ vs river bet
      - Will call AK ott vs c/jam
      - Will call all Kx vs river bet.
    • tolari
      tolari
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2010 Posts: 761
      thats a really cool hand, when I would see someone jamming river on such board I would never put him on flush so i would assume he made a weak random spazzy bluff and call rather wide with AK,AQ, KX probably, maybe if I get really CS-y JJ,TT. Which isreally great to do it with hand like KQ in this spot, coz this hands may check back and we call off only his fh's,AA and flushes.

      on the other hand it depends how often would he bluff us if we check and how high his WTSD is (imo the lower betting freq. and hhigher WTSD the better this play gets)
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Well if you need reads on exbi, from what I read on 2p2 pokerstars reg thread, he is one of the strongest players at NL500 zoom. He plays a tight 22/18 style, and he doesn't stick out in any way in my mind. Using a GTO style, with low but balanced cbet frequencies.

      I'm not sure whether he calls a lead at any point in time, looks kind of strong to me, and I think you rep what you have, with not too many bluffs
    • Desultory
      Desultory
      Basic
      Joined: 06.02.2013 Posts: 127
      My opinion:

      Recreational limper utg+1 might not be completely airy. it could be a range of any suited type hands, or a tighter range like sc's, low pockets type stuff.

      Assuming ExB is a standard reg, ExB will likely be isolating with his normal button range. I think KQo is a call pre 100% here to keep recreational player in and we dominated buttons range.

      Donking(leading) flop is possible and I will donk completely dependant on button cbet range. If its like 75%+ then its more likely a check to get value from complete air betting on a dry board. If its <60% cbet then a donk is better so you don't lose a bet on a street when your miles ahead vs both ranges. In between those ranges is debatable and you can basically mix plays depending on how you feel at the time, whether you look loose at the table or not etc. (bet the looser you look obv)


      After checking and facing the bet from button, if the recreational player is wider with his limps as mentioned above then I think raising is fine. In this scenario I think recreational players cold calls raise with TP+ and fd's and his range is about 1/3 pocket pairs that probably fold to raise and therefore you lose a bet by raising vs these hands, but gain more from his 2/3 range of TP,fd's. BUT if recreational player is less wide pre, then majority/entirety of his range will be pocket pairs, so calling is better.
      Button will have air most of the time but you still dominate him when he calls raise as well.

      After calling and hitting turn. I think checking makes more sense. Button will barrel draws expecting many folds from midpocks. Vs really really unbarrely regs who check back draws; leading turn could be better as you get another bet in vs recreational players Qx hands and flush draws again dependent on recreational players initial range.

      You can checkraise this turn as well. If you are not a raisy type of guy then calling is better as he will expect you to have KQ everytime with the occasional JcTc when you raise, but if you have aggro stats raising to get value from his Top pairs that will call turn is probably better. At this point I'm semi ignoring the recreational player who may come along with a raise as well with his flop flush draw and maybe not call another bet on turn with most of his queens facing a bet and call. It depends how bad he is. At 500NL i think some rec players are good enough to fold Q here.
      The worse he is, the more I'm inclined to call again. The more barrely the button is the more you should call.

      8hearts is an ok hand to barrel and try to get you off QJ and AQ possibly. But I think most players give up on their bluffs here.
      Therefore you may be facing a bet from purely a value range. If he is barrely, check call, because barrely players don't think "he might not have AQ here and therefore i'm not folding much out", they just barrel because they dont think and the faster the games are the less people think.
      If he isn't barrely, leading river allows you to possibly rep quite a lot of missed flop flush draws, and button has more TP's than rivered flushes. He is nearly always checking back top pairs.
      I think leading river is better as played. I think check raising river is not great unless you have history with the guy and he thinks you are super aggro.

      *************************
      "Thoughts on his river reaction vs a bet? (I wish I had switcherood it )

      I've spoken to some very good players about this hand. I've heard."

      - Will fold AA vs river bet [I VERY MUCH DOUBT THIS UNLESS YOU ARE SUPER NITTY AND TIGHT POST FLOP? PLAYERS STRUGGLE FOLDING ANYTHING ESPECIALLY AA, WHEN YOU POTENTIALLY CAN HAVE MISSED FLOP FD's]
      - Will call AQ vs river bet [YEP, DEFINITELY POSSIBLE]
      - Will call AK ott vs c/jam [POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER THE LIMITS, BUT BOTH OF YOU WILL NEED HISTORY FOR THIS TO BE LIKELY. HE WILL HAVE TO EXPECT YOU TO BE VERY CALLY AND VERY AGGRO]
      - Will call all Kx vs river bet. [DEFINITELY POSSIBLE]
    • z1pz0r
      z1pz0r
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.08.2009 Posts: 981
      Originally posted by Desultory

      If he isn't barrely, leading river allows you to possibly rep quite a lot of missed flop flush draws, and button has more TP's than rivered flushes. He is nearly always checking back top pairs.
      What missed flop flush draws? Are we playing c/c with NFD on turn there?
      I'd be personally much more inclined to donk out with NFD on either flop and turn.
      The only missed FDs I see are JcTc, AcTc, AcJc.
    • Desultory
      Desultory
      Basic
      Joined: 06.02.2013 Posts: 127
      Originally posted by z1pz0r
      What missed flop flush draws? Are we playing c/c with NFD on turn there?
      I'd be personally much more inclined to donk out with NFD on either flop and turn.
      The only missed FDs I see are JcTc, AcTc, AcJc.
      It depends how loose pleno1's calling range is in the small blind or rather how loose the button thinks pleno1's calling range is in the small blind. It also depends on pleno1's perceived 3bet range.

      In my opinion;
      AJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, ATs, is possible for any normal reg.
      J9s, T8s, 97s, 86s, 75s, 65s, 54s, A9s-A3s are also possible.

      I'm not saying we necessarily have these. Its more of a factor of what button thinks we have, so if in his mind we can possibly have flush draws, he will decide he has pot odds and call. I am not saying its a good call, I just think a lot of guys will make this call without further thought. Of course this depends on the button and every ones thought process is different. I would look at my notes on him to determine if he is cally or not. I think normal cally regs will NOT fold AA here and I wouldn't be surprised if they just auto call top pair. I very much doubt any reg under time pressure is good enough to factor out that you may have donked NFD's. But its not impossible that he would fold AA here, I just think that he would have to be very tight type of 24 tabling reg to do so.

      Please note I am advocating a smaller river bet of around 55-60%pot. If you bet 70%+ the chances of being called are slimmer, but again not impossible. If you do turn up with any hands worse than Kx, I think its a good spot to bluff river 70%-80% pot. I realise that isn't balanced as such, but regs will not have time to consider the whole picture. They just look at their pot odds.
    • Rahica
      Rahica
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.06.2011 Posts: 149
      So does villain show AA?
    • Kruppe
      Kruppe
      Black
      Joined: 20.02.2008 Posts: 2,144
      this seems like a clear C/C to me for so many reasons. donkbetting sucks given how the ranges developed(villain's range is somewhat strong and uncapped(although this would be more of a problem if stacks were deeper) and it's very hard for us to be bluffing or leading for value with worse than AK here ), and if we don't C/C here we fold our entire range after checking except maybe random slowplays and QJhh? anyway, he will often bet AK or KJ and fairly often air. if he checks AK or KJ i make a note, seems like it would be useful.