[NL20-NL50] Call river pot sized bet?

    • maheepsangari
      maheepsangari
      Gold
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      Prima, $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      CO: $24.61 (123.1 bb)
      BTN: $20.02 (100.1 bb)
      SB: $40.33 (201.6 bb) 25/0 12 hands
      BB: $32.60 (163 bb)
      UTG: $21.92 (109.6 bb)
      Hero (MP): $52.02 (260.1 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP with 4 4
      UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.60, 2 folds, SB calls $0.50, BB folds

      Flop: ($1.40) 7 J A (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.70, SB calls $0.70

      Turn: ($2.80) K (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero checks

      River: ($2.80) 4 (2 players)
      SB bets $2.80, Hero calls $2.80
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      I think flop cbet is a huge mistake. Name me all the hands he is actually folding here.

      On the river despite him potting, i think we have the best hand here most of the time. I expect him to cr 77 on the flop so we are only looking at QT, twopairs and busted draws. Of cos busted draws fold to a raise but i doubt twopairs fold here. I raise it to 8 and if he 3bets we have a tough spot but probably folding if he is straightforward.

      Thanks.
    • maheepsangari
      maheepsangari
      Gold
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      On flop I expect 22-TT, KT, QT, KQ to fold.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      I dont see why the gutshots kq kt qt should fold. That is probably always in his flop continuation range. We could argue that he may fold the lower gutshots like T9 but certainly not the broadway ones.