[NL2-NL10] 65s

    • yaxkukmian
      yaxkukmian
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.12.2007 Posts: 2,020
      no hud, speed.
      villain seems regish (300 hands 20/17...didn't know that while playing)

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($14.83)
      BB ($14.82)
      UTG ($9.04)
      UTG+1 ($11.02)
      Hero ($10)
      BTN ($7.55)

      Dealt to Hero 6:heart: 5:heart:

      fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, fold, fold

      FLOP ($0.75) 8:heart: 7:spade: J:heart:

      Hero bets $0.53, BTN raises to $1.40, Hero raises to $9.70 (AI), BTN calls $5.85 (AI)

      TURN ($15.25) 8:heart: 7:spade: J:heart: T:spade:

      RIVER ($15.25) 8:heart: 7:spade: J:heart: T:spade: 5:club:

      Hero shows 6:heart: 5:heart:
      (Pre 23%, Flop 55.8%, Turn 30.7%)

      BTN shows K:club: K:diamond:
      (Pre 77%, Flop 44.2%, Turn 69.3%)

      BTN wins $14.24


      We have to invest $0,87 into $2,68 which is 3:1 or 25% equity. Was thinking of just calling and continuing the hand normally. Opponent gives us great price.

      After thinking it over I decided to shove. Problem is that he usually isn't doing this with only AJ. He might have some FD blocker but his smaller raise looks like he's afraid of sth. Problem with only calling is that there might be some blank T and we have to give up.

      Equity Win Tie
      CO 44.37% 44.03% 0.34% 6h5h
      BU 55.63% 55.28% 0.34% JJ+, 88-77, AJs, T9s, AhKh, AhQh, AhTh, AJo, T9o

      He's 3b some of this hands preflop:
      AKs, QQ, KK

      and he might probably fold AhTh, AJo

      But even against this super strong range we have 45% equity.

      Looking at it now I don't like my play so much since we're 80bb deep. If we were 60bb deep that another story. But he gives me such good odds to continue and I think I should just call him. My hand still has very good disguise and if we hit we're probably getting paid out.

      Until which amount would you just call a raise? When would you just shove over him (when is cold calling not profitable)?

      I was so happy to get into situation having potentially 15 outs on the flop...and I thought if he has AA I'm actually the favourite :D
  • 3 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Yax,

      Preflop: looks fine

      Postflop: Versus a regular this should be closer to a call than a shove. I doubt that we get bluff raised a ton here and he can even have better draws. However, since you didn't know he is a reg we can assume by his stack that he isn't the best player and thus may raise a hand like JQ.

      I think the range you assign villain should include more Jx hands because at the time we didn't know he's a reg. We also should assign other flush draws like QKhh, QT/KT, etc.

      Either way I think that we will be break even in the worst case scenario (with 0 FE we need 44% equity before rake. As you can see even in a worse case scenario we have that much.

      Versus this: JJ+,88-77,AJs,KJs,QJs,T9s,AhKh,AhQh,KhQh,AhTh,KhTh,QhTh,AJo,KJo,T9o we go up to like 46%

      So if he ever raise/folds this becomes really profitable. Or if he starts raise calling weird hands like 89.
    • yaxkukmian
      yaxkukmian
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.12.2007 Posts: 2,020
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      So if he ever raise/folds this becomes really profitable. Or if he starts raise calling weird hands like 89.
      Big problem is that on NL10 they usually don't raise/fold that much if they hit anything. I was hoping he can fold anything.

      So after c/c only c/f T? Or can we still call some smaller bet?
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by yaxkukmian
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      So if he ever raise/folds this becomes really profitable. Or if he starts raise calling weird hands like 89.
      Big problem is that on NL10 they usually don't raise/fold that much if they hit anything. I was hoping he can fold anything.

      So after c/c only c/f T? Or can we still call some smaller bet?
      That particular turn should be a ck/fold as it kills our straight outs and we may have reverse implied for our flush outs.