[NL2-NL10] NL5 Zoom Top pair v shortstack raising.

    • elchipriota
      elchipriota
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2012 Posts: 438
      Poker Stars $5.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2093988
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BTN: $2.65 - VPIP: 25, PFR: 22, 3B: 13, AF: 3,5, Hands: 68
      SB: $6.50 - VPIP: 50, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0,0, Hands: 2
      BB: $3.24 - VPIP: 13, PFR: 10, 3B: 0, AF: 0,0, Hands: 30
      UTG: $5.72 - VPIP: 35, PFR: 28, 3B: 7, AF: 2,4, Hands: 92
      MP: $7.34 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 14, 3B: 3, AF: 3,8, Hands: 285
      Hero (CO): $5.02 - VPIP: 27, PFR: 22, 3B: 9, AF: 2,7, Hands: 75753

      Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is CO with 6 :club: A :club:
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0.15, BTN calls $0.15, 2 folds

      Flop: ($0.37) Q :diamond: 5 :diamond: A :diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.25, BTN calls $0.25

      Turn: ($0.87) 6 :spade: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.60, BTN raises to $1.20, Hero raises to $4.62, BTN calls $1.05 all in

      River: ($5.37) 2 :heart: (2 players - 1 is all in)


      I think he is going to raise on flop two pairs +, on the turn I put him on some made flushes, some Tp with fdraw, and middle pair fdraw. I dont think I can get away from this with such a shallow stack on the turn.

      What do you think?
  • 3 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Elchipriota

      Preflop: looks fine

      Postflop: I don't necessarily agree that he would raise 2p+ plus on the flop. He is IP and can call to look at raising a safe turn.

      In my opinion that 6 does not improve our hand (beyond us beating A5 now) and it gives us "fake" strength because I feel that villain will rarely ever raise with anything less than 2p. We do get 4 outs in case we are behind to a flush. So if we were ahead on the flop we are on the turn and vice versa.

      With that being said we know that we have 0 FE when we shove so we need to be good roughly 30% of the time (before rake). Even against a range such as: 55,AQs,A5s,KdJd,KdTd,JdTd,Td9d,9d8d,8d7d we have 21%. So that means that villain has to do this with some semibluffs like QKd, or AJd. If we add those we jump up to 36%.

      So you can see that even when you add some of those hands it will be close to a breakeven spot and thus I think that folding is the correct play.
    • elchipriota
      elchipriota
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2012 Posts: 438
      Thank you bogdan!

      Very throughout reply!

      For future hands, when should I include semi bluffs? What kind of reads do I need?

      Also can we make any general notes on the player give the way he played for the future?


      Thank you in advance.

      Nick
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by elchipriota
      Thank you bogdan!

      Very throughout reply!

      For future hands, when should I include semi bluffs? What kind of reads do I need?

      Also can we make any general notes on the player give the way he played for the future?


      Thank you in advance.

      Nick
      What did villain show up with? The hand he shows up with is important for our notes.

      First, we have to look at what semibluffs are possible. The less semibluffs possible the less likely someone is to have one in their overall range.

      For example if that A was not diamonds but the 6 was then we can say that he could raise turn with AdX. Or even better, lets say that the Ad was actually a Kd then we can expect some more AdX in his range that could raise. Of course this is all villain dependent because certain opponents may not have certain hands.

      Like here I think that even if the flop was KdQd5d villain can't have many naked Ad hands.