[NL20-NL50] 50shz KQo BU

    • AtrociousNightmare
      Joined: 14.04.2010 Posts: 1,185
      Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      Hero (BTN): $68.07 (136.1 bb)
      SB: $50.25 (100.5 bb)
      BB: $49.25 (98.5 bb)
      UTG: $78.22 (156.4 bb)
      MP: $68.56 (137.1 bb)
      CO: $327.64 (655.3 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with K Q
      3 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, SB folds, BB calls $0.75

      Flop: ($2.75) 2 A 8 (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $1.74, BB calls $1.74

      Turn: ($6.23) K (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero checks

      River: ($6.23) 5 (2 players)
      BB bets $3.50, Hero calls $3.50

      $13.23 pot ($0.72 rake)
      Final Board: 2 A 8 K 5
      Hero mucked K Q and lost (-$6.49 net)
      BB showed A T and won $12.51 ($6.02 net)

      VPIP: 23, PFR: 10, 3B: 3, AF: 0,5, Hands: 88

      On such a flop I felt like he could be calling only with an A or middle pair or FD. Middle pair folds to 2nd barrel, A doesn't, and FD it's not a reason good enough to bet in this situation.
      So I check behind and call in the hope to catch a bluff or PP.
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      I agree with checking back on the Turn, but I think you should just fold the River. We mostly beat draws, and mid pocket pairs turned into bluffs. I don't think he turns worse pairs into bluffs too often. Flop hardly has any straight draws, and we have a spade in our hand which reduces the likelihood that he has busted flush draws.

      Thus I think this is a fold. I doubt we are good here 25% of the time. I would expect him to have an Ace really often and he hardly has any bluffs.