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[NL20-NL50] FR25 Zoom AQ TP missed value bet?

    • ChangNoi77
      Joined: 27.06.2012 Posts: 352
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      SB ($7.71)
      BB ($25)
      UTG ($51.78)
      Hero ($25)
      UTG+2 ($67.28)
      MP1 ($12.50)
      MP2 ($30.70)
      CO ($84.99)
      BTN ($24.01)

      Dealt to Hero Q:spade: A:club:

      fold, Hero raises to $0.95, fold, fold, fold, CO calls $0.95, fold, fold, fold

      FLOP ($2.25) 8:diamond: A:diamond: 3:spade:

      Hero bets $1.44, CO calls $1.44

      TURN ($5.13) 8:diamond: A:diamond: 3:spade: 4:spade:

      Hero bets $3.28, CO calls $3.28

      RIVER ($11.69) 8:diamond: A:diamond: 3:spade: 4:spade: 7:heart:

      Hero checks, CO checks

      Hero shows Q:spade: A:club:
      (Pre 43%, Flop 91.2%, Turn 95.5%)

      CO shows J:heart: J:spade:
      (Pre 57%, Flop 8.8%, Turn 4.5%)

      Hero wins $11.16

      Villain is a complete unknown. He can have AK, but there's many weaker pairs that get to the river and a set is unlikely. How thin can we value bet here if at all?

      There's still many players at this level who can't fold an ace and we can play a missed FD this way, although I admit it is very thin without reads.
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      This is nitty fullring. I dont see him having too many worse ax preflpp and hes unknown so i think u shuldcheck. If this is blind vs blidn river is a very easy bet for value vs AXs ATo AJo. But over here im not too sure what he can rly hero call with.. so c/c seems better