[NL20-NL50] FR25 Zoom 99 Set on a nasty board, can bet river?

    • ChangNoi77
      Joined: 27.06.2012 Posts: 352
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      SB ($26.10)
      BB ($31.37)
      UTG ($32.09)
      UTG+1 ($99.75)
      UTG+2 ($30.13)
      MP1 ($31.79)
      MP2 ($39.20)
      CO ($27.01)
      Hero ($25)

      Dealt to Hero 9:heart: 9:spade:

      UTG raises to $1, fold, fold, fold, MP2 calls $1, fold, Hero calls $1, fold, BB calls $0.75

      FLOP ($4.10) A:club: 9:diamond: T:diamond:

      BB checks, UTG checks, MP2 bets $1.50, Hero raises to $5.54, BB folds, UTG folds, MP2 calls $4.04

      TURN ($15.18) A:club: 9:diamond: T:diamond: J:spade:

      MP2 checks, Hero bets $6.60, MP2 calls $6.60

      RIVER ($28.38) A:club: 9:diamond: T:diamond: J:spade: K:diamond:

      MP2 checks, Hero checks

      Hero shows 9:heart: 9:spade:
      (Pre 70%, Flop 93.5%, Turn 81.8%)

      MP2 shows 8:club: A:heart:
      (Pre 30%, Flop 6.5%, Turn 18.2%)

      Hero wins $27.10

      Villain is a 42/4 over 24 hands

      I'm torn between how many Qx he can have and he could play a flush this way as well, but a player like this can maybe still call with two pair, or can he? I doubt he has better set and would be getting almost 4-1 if I shove.

      My river agg freq very rarely goes over 20% and I'm pretty sure I'm not value betting thin enough in general.
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