[NL2-NL10] AQ 3bet pot

    • Stedyeddy
      Stedyeddy
      Black
      Joined: 28.02.2011 Posts: 7,497
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      SB ($30.88)
      BB ($10.25)
      UTG ($18.73)
      UTG+1 ($28.90)
      Hero ($11.23)
      BTN ($25.55)

      Dealt to Hero A:diamond: Q:spade:

      UTG calls $0.25, UTG+1 raises to $1, Hero raises to $2.10, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG+1 calls $1.10

      FLOP ($4.80) 7:spade: T:diamond: J:club:

      UTG+1 bets $2.26, Hero folds

      UTG+1 wins $4.58

      Oponent

      52/39

      In 32 hands.

      Dobut 1> How I can continue whit my OC + GUT?

      Dobut 2> What i shoud do if he check? bet flop and AI turn?


      If I decide pushear your donk, the opponent would have to fold 56%, but I'm not counting on the equity of my hand.

      How can I calcule this?

      From already thank you
  • 2 replies
    • kymupa
      kymupa
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364
      Hello,

      I like 3betting preflop against this guy but I would definitely make it bigger - like $3-$3.5.

      On this flop folding is definitely fine. I doubt he has a bluff here at all and if we shove we are always behind.
      If he checks we have to check back here. This board hits his range pretty much so I would rather keep the pot smaller.

      You can calculate the equity of your hand by using Equilab.
      For example if we give him this range on the flop - TT-77,AJs-ATs,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,AJo-ATo,KJo+,QJo we have 36.85% equity against it.
      Let's say that this is his stacking off range and it is 50% of his whole range (that means that he has the same amount of bluffs like A2 etc).

      That means that in the 50% of the times we will pick up the pot, and in the rest 50% of the time we will have 36.85% equity of the whole pot.
      Now the calculation looks like this:
      0.5*7.06 + 0.5*(0.3685*23.04-9.13)

      Now I believe that the first part (0.5*7.06) is familiar to you since we already talked about this so I would only explain the second part but if you have any questions about the first feel free to ask.
      So basically, we invest $9.13 to win 36.85% of the whole pot which is $23.04. So, if we make a simple calculation we get that we invested $9.13 to win $8.49 which means that every time we stack off we will slightly lose money but that's okay since we will win a lot by picking up the pot in the rest 50% of the time.

      So this - 0.5*7.06 + 0.5*(0.3685*23.04-9.13), will now look like this - 0.5*7.06 - 0.5*0.64 which equals to $3.21 - that means we will win $3.21 every time when we shove.

      NOTE: THOSE NUMBERS WERE MADE UP TO SHOW HOW IT IS CALCULATED. IN THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO I DON'T THINK THAT WE HAVE ANY FOLD EQUITY AT ALL SO STACKING OFF WILL BE BAD.

      Best,
      Plamen
    • Stedyeddy
      Stedyeddy
      Black
      Joined: 28.02.2011 Posts: 7,497
      ahh, now understand

      FE*DE +(1-FE)*(EQ*POT-Stack)

      ty for your time