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[NL20-NL50] (Sh) Nl30 - Jj

    • bosiati
      Joined: 23.05.2008 Posts: 697
      Pacific, $0.15/$0.30 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      Hero (BTN): $34.48 (114.9 bb)
      SB: $25.79 (86 bb)
      BB: $30 (100 bb)
      UTG: $131.05 (436.8 bb)
      MP: $31.72 (105.7 bb)
      CO: $31.77 (105.9 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with J J
      UTG raises to $1.20, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.20, 2 folds

      Flop: ($2.85) 2 7 4 (2 players)
      UTG bets $2.10, Hero calls $2.10

      Turn: ($7.05) Q (2 players)
      UTG bets $3.90, Hero calls $3.90

      River: ($14.85) 6 (2 players)
      UTG bets $6.60, Hero calls $6.60

      $28.05 pot ($1.40 rake)
      Final Board: 2 7 4 Q 6
      Hero showed J J and lost (-$13.80 net)
      UTG showed K K and won $26.65 ($12.85 net)


      118 hands 58/6
      AF(TOT/F/T/R):10/7.5/22/9, AFq(TOT/F/T/R):54/46/59/67
      WTSD:24, W$SD:40

      Turn, River? Can I call?
  • 2 replies
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      I think fold the River. His PFR is so low, he has a strong raising range and he has AK/KQ/AQ/big pocketpairs a lot.

    • Desultory
      Joined: 06.02.2013 Posts: 129
      Does this player limp?
      Has he limped utg? What % does he limp raise?

      If he does limp raise, and because he looks like a recreational player, and recreational players love to trap, that would take out a large percentage/possibly all of his AA,KK,QQ hands.

      Its a very strange spot because that 6% PFR could purely be nuts, or could purely be connector type stuff. Or possibly just plain air, if the recreational player is getting frustrated, they tend to do unexpected things. They don't play consistently, so their stats can't be trusted as much as a regs stats could.
      Has he lost a big hand recently?

      The lower down the stakes, the less consistently players play and the more inclined I am to fish it up and call down.
      It wouldn't surprise me if he just has nothing, especially with the small bets.
      He may also have 7x, 4x type stuff that he is trying to blocker bet, and not really thinking in any depth about what you might have.
      His 100% turn cbet, even though a small sample confirms this.

      I think this is a call,call vs this type of guy given all of the above.
      If he shows up with AQ/overpair stuff, I wouldn't beat myself up about it. Just note that he bets small with good hands.

      In future I would pay attention to what hands he shows down AFTER opening to try and gauge that 6% PFR. If you see another AQ+ type hand in his opening range then you can probably assume he only opens strong and you can start hero folding.

      As it stands I think calling down Midpocks vs 30NL random recreational players is fine.