[NL20-NL50] FR25 Zoom QQ overpair facing out of rhythm river shove

    • ChangNoi77
      Joined: 27.06.2012 Posts: 352
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      SB ($21.55)
      BB ($13.32)
      UTG ($10.21)
      Hero ($30.46)
      UTG+2 ($12.50)
      MP1 ($20.30)
      MP2 ($22.82)
      CO ($30.33)
      BTN ($10.34)

      Dealt to Hero Q:spade: Q:diamond:

      fold, Hero raises to $0.95, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls $0.70

      FLOP ($2) 8:heart: 7:diamond: 5:spade:

      BB checks, Hero bets $1.28, BB calls $1.28

      TURN ($4.56) 8:heart: 7:diamond: 5:spade: 2:spade:

      BB checks, Hero bets $2.91, BB calls $2.91

      RIVER ($10.38) 8:heart: 7:diamond: 5:spade: 2:spade: 8:spade:

      BB bets $8.18 (AI), Hero folds

      BB wins $9.91

      Villain is 37/18 over 41 hands. Not that aggro, freq stat is 33%

      I see fish bluff at paired boards all the time but he also has an 8 here a lot as well. Not sure how close this is really.I doubt he bluffs 99,TT,JJ here, but I can see 56,76 been played like this. What made me fold was he's loose enough to have many unsuited 8x hands as well.
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694

      It's close, but I think I would call. I think he can have some T9 type of hands turned into a bluff. But given that he called in BB (giving him many more 8X hands cos fish love to defend BBs due to pot odds), and the fact that the backdoor flush draw got there too, I think it may be alright to fold here.