[NL20-NL50] [SH][NL25] x/c x/?[KF24]

    • KillerFishes
      KillerFishes
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.07.2010 Posts: 2,313
      PartyGaming - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BTN: $59.00
      Hero (SB): $34.00
      BB: $40.93
      UTG: $37.25
      MP: $8.00
      CO: $26.42

      Hero posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has J:heart: J:spade:

      fold, fold, CO raises to $0.75, fold, Hero calls $0.65, BB calls $0.50

      Flop: ($2.25, 3 players) 7:spade: 6:spade: T:club:
      Hero checks, BB checks, CO bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, fold

      Turn: ($5.25, 2 players) T:heart:
      Hero checks, CO bets $3.50, fold

      Hey,

      22/19, CO 36, cbets 67/54/100(6/6) .. 900hand sample

      he's probably running very good since his river bet or he's overaggro? Is 6 significant sample enough to make any kind of estimations?

      My thoughts process:

      Flop - he's betting into 3, strong range (draws&madehands)
      Turn - It's probably very weak fold :( .. He's betting all his draws again right? (sizing tell? 3,5/5,25 is quite low => draw?) In the game I thought that Tx is really bad barreling card for him and he'd very likely check most of his draws and continue with JJ+, 98, fullhouses, Tx ...

      If I'd call would you call the river?

      thx
  • 1 reply
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Hey KF,

      I would say his sizing is not that small.. maybe he'd bet more with stronger made hands but his sizing can still be QQ-AA, 89, some Tx as well. Given his river aggression so far you kind of have to decide now on what cards you have a profitable river call. Are there enough? The way the hand played with 3 people on the flop and betting the turn as well I believe your hand is best a fold, albeit it seems a bit tight.

      I want to point out preflop though: You are playing CO vs SB, JJ is quite a strong hand here and you are facing someone with 36% open from CO. I can't imagine this not being a value 3bet/5bet almost ever vs such a player. It would be quite a sick exception for him to open so much and not defend or 4bet worse than JJ.