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[NL20-NL50] nl 50 Kjo vs fish

    • franeczek
      Joined: 22.03.2009 Posts: 2,439
      Party, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $109.72 (219.4 bb)
      CO: $50 (100 bb)
      Hero (MP2): $50 (100 bb)
      MP3: $19.66 (39.3 bb)
      SB: $55.02 (110 bb)
      MP1: $50 (100 bb)
      UTG+2: $29.65 (59.3 bb)
      BB: $31.76 (63.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K J
      2 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, 2 folds, BTN calls $1.50, SB folds, BB calls $1

      Flop: ($4.75) 6 7 J (3 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $3.25, BTN calls $3.25, BB calls $3.25

      Turn: ($14.50) 4 (3 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $10, BTN calls $10, BB folds

      River: ($34.50) 7 (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $32.78, Hero calls $32.78

      $100.06 pot ($3 rake)
      Final Board: 6 7 J 4 7
      BTN showed 7 5 and won $97.06 ($49.53 net)
      Hero mucked K J and lost (-$47.53 net)

      Villian is a fish 46/10/3.1 bet River vs missed cbet 56%, according to note caddy his river potsize bet is all sort of things (so it is polarized).
      Didn't expect him to have many 7x that would call it twice + I don't expect him to ever value bet Jx like that, expected him to bluff sth like 89, 54, 56 some random pair like 88,99 some % of the time. Are my estimations way off???
  • 1 reply
    • Desultory
      Joined: 06.02.2013 Posts: 129
      I think its fairly likely he will call again with all of his 7x hands because he has an overcard and mipair(A7. K7, Q7s) and he picks up a GS on turn with his 87 and 75s hands. I don't think he will bluff his TT-88 hands as what does he bluff you off thats better...

      Choosing between betting river and checking river is marginal.
      Betting gets value from QJ-J8, maybe TT-88 [10.8%] and loses to 7x & AJ [7.76%] and folds out draws.
      Check calling gets 98, 54 and T8s to bet [7.45%] but loses to AJ & 7x [7.76%]

      It seems betting river is better assuming he calls all Top pairs, which I think he will.

      After checking, the big bet definitely says "I have hit 7x" but I'm just never folding TPGK at 50NL vs recreational players so as played call is fine.