AA river line/sizings

    • zumpar
      zumpar
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.02.2012 Posts: 1,185
      hey.... just recently saw a video of TwiceT and Vonki playing and analyzing NL50 SH and there was one hand i got really confused

      (pink performance, part 8, min 2:30)

      went like this:

      hero is UTG, villain is MP

      Preflop:
      hero has A:club: A:spade:

      hero raises to $1.50, MP calls, SB calls

      Flop:( $4.75) K:heart: 2:heart: 2:club: , 3-handed
      SB checks, Hero bets $3.75, MP calls, SB folds

      Turn: ($11.88) 8:spade: 2-handed
      Hero bets $9.37, MP calls

      River: ($29.67) 2:spade: 2-handed

      Hero?? ($32 left eff)



      and all they consider is overjamming river or betting like $20 on the river or c/r river

      which imo just absolutely makes no sense to me.....
      ur getting it in vs Kx anyways, but there are other parts of his range that you have to consider, mostly

      - 99-QQ, which are always checking back river (if u go for a c/r) and NEVER calling an overjam

      - busted FD's which are never calling river obv as well



      isnt by far the best option to bet like $11 otr? 99-QQ are almost always crycalling this sizing imo + Kx is always jamming here, so we dont lose value vs Kx this way, but we def lose value against underpair by overjamming river ourselves, cuz he never ever ever calls an overbet with this part of range

      also some missed FD's possible in his range vs which we get no value by overbetting, but our $11 sizing might make him spazz and jam trying to fold out underpairs maybe...?


      really confused i see literally no argument for betting river that huge.

      can someone explain this to me? am i mmissing something here?

      thanks
  • 8 replies
    • Gadgaard
      Gadgaard
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.06.2012 Posts: 124
      1st.
      Try to consider how many possible combinations of Kx there is and how many qq-99.

      2nd.
      Do you think you opponent would be able to laydown a Kx at this board if overjamming the river? As you mentioned the fd missed so he might put hero on a bluff, and i doubt he put hero on a 2 here since preflop action.

      3rd.
      if you do bet 11$ yes, u might get money from a larger range, but u lose value aswell since u don't get maximum value from a big part of his range, since it's hard to imagine villain to lay down Kx even if we shove here.
      (instead of +31$ u only get 11$ which means u dont get maximum value out of the situation and those +20 u can make from Kx ranges will be better than to gain 11$ from a larger range in this chase Kx + 99-QQ)

      hope im not too confusing :f_confused:
    • zumpar
      zumpar
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.02.2012 Posts: 1,185
      Originally posted by Gadgaard
      3rd.
      if you do bet 11$ yes, u might get money from a larger range, but u lose value aswell since u don't get maximum value from a big part of his range, since it's hard to imagine villain to lay down Kx even if we shove here.
      (instead of +31$ u only get 11$ which means u dont get maximum value out of the situation and those +20 u can make from Kx ranges will be better than to gain 11$ from a larger range in this chase Kx + 99-QQ)
      i think if u bet $11 otr, he's always jamming Kx, i honestly cant imagine 90% villains not shoving Kx cuz "they have the nutz" - so it makes no difference vs this part of his range, its getting in anyways - not losing value
      but u def lose value from underpairs if u jam river... and possible FD spazzes
    • MatejM47
      MatejM47
      Black
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,193
      Why would anyone even consider jamming Kx over a 11$ bet? He will never get called by worse and will always get snapped by another Kx or better, therefor its not a bluff( no better hands fold) and its not a valuebet ( no worse hands call), so no, kx is not jamming anyway if he is somewhat competent. If you yourself are jamming a Kx in this spot your just dumb. Just because your hand is ''the nutz'' and you do have the best hand with Kx 90% of the time you still can't value shove it.

      And given the board runout its most likely he has some Kx type of hand that won't fold to a big bet or even a jam. You also have to consider that there's way more combos of Kx, especially if TT-QQ are sometimes a 3bet so you pretty much have to play this river as if he has a KX and extract value from that.
    • Gadgaard
      Gadgaard
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.06.2012 Posts: 124
      , i honestly cant imagine 90% villains not shoving Kx cuz "they have the nutz"


      This is where I have a different opinion. I doubt many opponents will jam Kx here but call your 11$ bet instead. Try to take it from his Point of view, why would he raise here? he can't gain anymore value from the situation by jamming, because if u bluffed with busted fd there's no way u call a jam, if u have Kx u split, if u hold 99-QQ it's very unlikely that u call aswell. If u hold either AA or 88 he lose.
      There's simply no reason for him to reraise if u bet 11$ since only plit or better hands will call.
    • elchipriota
      elchipriota
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2012 Posts: 438
      Originally posted by Gadgaard
      1st.
      Try to consider how many possible combinations of Kx there is and how many qq-99.

      2nd.
      Do you think you opponent would be able to laydown a Kx at this board if overjamming the river? As you mentioned the fd missed so he might put hero on a bluff, and i doubt he put hero on a 2 here since preflop action.

      3rd.
      if you do bet 11$ yes, u might get money from a larger range, but u lose value aswell since u don't get maximum value from a big part of his range, since it's hard to imagine villain to lay down Kx even if we shove here.
      (instead of +31$ u only get 11$ which means u dont get maximum value out of the situation and those +20 u can make from Kx ranges will be better than to gain 11$ from a larger range in this chase Kx + 99-QQ)

      hope im not too confusing :f_confused:
      +1

      Get max value from his Kx range, and ignore the 99-QQ as the small bet looses u a lot of value in the long term.

      The reason for the check I think they think of doing it in order to induce a bluff in the case he is on a busted fdraw, if he is then the more +EV line to take is to check and let vilain put his money voluntarily in the pot.
    • liguolong
      liguolong
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.03.2010 Posts: 731
      I doubt all ppl will raise K against you if you bet 11$. It is true they have the best hand a lot of the time, but the raise doesn't get called by worse most of the time too. Also consider the preflop play, villian is unlikely to have QQ. And some of those pairs might not call on turn.
    • zumpar
      zumpar
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.02.2012 Posts: 1,185
      Originally posted by liguolong
      I doubt all ppl will raise K against you if you bet 11$. It is true they have the best hand a lot of the time, but the raise doesn't get called by worse most of the time too. Also consider the preflop play, villian is unlikely to have QQ. And some of those pairs might not call on turn.
      yes, i agree, vs a competent opponent, i will probably overjam myself vs his percieved range of Kx.... keep in mind that villain here is a fish, which, in the video,
      jammed all his $32 over our ~$25 river overbet.... so its pretty hard to imagine him not overjamming vs our smallish bet
    • ionutd
      ionutd
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.01.2010 Posts: 23
      assuming mp is competent
      a decent player does not get to the river with a fd or 99-QQ
      he's got a good K an overwhelming % of the time and very rarely 88
      the only reason why you'd check is that he vbets his top pair, in which case he won't ship and will almost always fold to a c/r so you don't get paid enough. In the best case scenario, he will vb small to induce and snap your c/r but few will do that
      2 options for betting: less than 1/2p if the guy has a really low wtsd and ship otherwise, no other bet sizing makes sense. I expect AK will stick around to a ship. Shipping it is!

      vs fish very happy to bet bet ship