[NL20-NL50] nl50 AQ sh

    • jules97
      jules97
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.06.2012 Posts: 1,449
      CUT

      4bets 7%
      donks 6%


      I probably seem very agro/crazy. My squeeze wouldnt get much respect, so this guy might even be calling wider than he usually does.

      This ok? I think he has a tonne of Qx hands? And maybe spazzing out with something like 88-JJ?

      If he only has 33,AQs,KQs,QJs,AQo after calling the flop, I don't look to good on the turn at 47% :f_confused: I suppose I have to go with it, with the money in anyways...?

      PokerStars - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      CO: $50.00
      BTN: $107.06
      SB: $20.81
      Hero (BB): $55.53
      UTG: $82.71
      MP: $58.00

      SB posts SB $0.25, Hero posts BB $0.50

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has Q:heart: A:spade:

      fold, fold, CO raises to $1.50, BTN calls $1.50, fold, Hero raises to $6.50, CO calls $5.00, fold

      Flop: ($14.75, 2 players) Q:diamond: 3:club: Q:club:
      Hero checks, CO bets $7.50, Hero raises to $15.00, CO calls $7.50

      Turn: ($44.75, 2 players) 4:diamond:
      Hero bets $34.03 and is all-in, CO calls $28.50 and is all-in

      River: ($101.75, 2 players) 2:heart:

      Hero shows Q:heart: A:spade: (Three of a Kind, Queens) (Pre 47%, Flop 23%, Turn 16%)
      CO shows 3:heart: 3:spade: (Full House, Threes full of Queens) (Pre 53%, Flop 77%, Turn 84%)
      CO wins $99.25
  • 5 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      Why would u not cbet the flop? He is not folding anything on the flop. Unless u want to level him into betting TT here and call a huge raise. U are giving him a chance to potcontrol all those hands when we are almost guaranteed 2 streetd of value vs his likely range of qx or mid pairs.
    • jules97
      jules97
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.06.2012 Posts: 1,449
      Oh yeah sorry, forgot to mention that, he floats flops upwards of 80%, I expected him to bet here even more.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      You still havent stated why u think checkraise is better than 3barrel. Do u think he gives u less credit? What if he just folds turn? I think vs his qx and fullhouses the money goes in regardless.

      However do u think u can extract more value from mid pairs by taking a line that seems strongerr in my opinion?


      As i have already pointed out, his range is pretty strong on the flop already and he can often call 2 streets. Im not sure though whether he would necessarily bet the flop all the time. With TT he is going to check back for pot control sometimes. I dont think the bet when checked to stat is too relevant, it dowsnt mean he will bet a merged range.
    • jules97
      jules97
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.06.2012 Posts: 1,449
      I thought:

      - he will bet more hands on the flop, then he will call. So it's more profitable to let him bet. i.e. Some overcards or small PP's he may just fold to a cbet, wheras I think he's more likely to bet these.

      - I can min-raise his bet that he will call with his entire range that he bets with

      - on the turn, he is more likely to give less credit and call down with a mid pair then he would calling 3 barrels. Perhaps another overcard to his pair comes on the river and shuts him down? Or a flushdraw completes?

      - If he just folds turn then I think he would be folding the turn to a double barrel anyway, but I have got more money in already with my flop raise

      - my line may appear stronger, but I have been very aggressive and I think it looks more polarized with this aggressive line. And on a dry flop, I think don't rep a hell of a lot. Another card gives me a chance to rep more and kill action.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      I don't know how to read your stats. Maybe you want to explain your reads.

      "He will bet more hands on the flop, then he will call. So it's more profitable to let him bet. i.e. Some overcards or small PP's he may just fold to a cbet, wheras I think he's more likely to bet these."

      This assumption is untrue vs a typical 3bet/calling range, which comprises mainly QX hands and mid pocket pairs. Unless you are telling me he defends much wider, with a ton of suited connectors, and plays really aggressively with them, then I may agree with you. Perhaps you are right, given the fact that he did show up with a low pocket pair.

      "I can min-raise his bet that he will call with his entire range that he bets with"

      This may be true, but not always.

      "on the turn, he is more likely to give less credit and call down with a mid pair then he would calling 3 barrels. Perhaps another overcard to his pair comes on the river and shuts him down? Or a flushdraw completes?"

      This could possibly be true, especially when there are 2 flush draws on the Turn

      "If he just folds turn then I think he would be folding the turn to a double barrel anyway, but I have got more money in already with my flop raise"

      Not true, I expect him to always call mid pocket pairs to 2 barrels on this board.