[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL50 88 set on ugly board

    • duder1n0
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,309
      Prima, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players

      Hero (SB): $59.85 (119.7 bb)
      BB: $50.75 (101.5 bb)
      MP: $7.05 (14.1 bb)
      CO: $43.66 (87.3 bb)
      BTN: $51.66 (103.3 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with 8 8
      2 folds, BTN raises to $1.25, Hero calls $1, BB folds

      Flop: ($3) 8 7 9 (2 players)
      Hero bets $2, BTN calls $2

      Turn: ($7) T (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $5, Hero calls $5

      River: ($17) 4 (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $12, Hero calls $12

      Anon table.

      BTN played 35/26 after 45 hands, AFq 36 so far.

      What do you think about donking flop? I dont know his cbetting tendencies, so wanted to avoid a checkback.
      Turn? I dont have a valuebet, but have outs even against a straight, so I ch/called.
      River? He can have some Jx (J7-J9 are most likely, cause JT probably would have raised flop), otherwise would he bluff in this spot at least 29% of the time? I dont know...
  • 1 reply
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343

      Consider his big turn bet and 60% river bet I don´t think he is bluffing there too often. Also it does not make him valuebet too many worse hands (or any).
      So I would prefer folding river.

      Leading flop is fine- don´t think you get raised too often, but at least your then get 3 streets of value from worse hands.

      best regards,