[NL2-NL10] AKs, flop cbet ?

    • staselu
      staselu
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2008 Posts: 532
      IPoker Network $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players - View hand 2099402
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      Hero (SB): $17.24
      BB: $10.10
      CO: $12.86
      BTN: $14.37 30/20 agfactor 1.3 wts 30 steal from BU 30% fold to resteal 13% hands 700

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with A :club: K :club:
      1 fold, BTN raises to $0.30, Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.70

      Flop: ($2.10) J :heart: 9 :spade: T :club: (2 players)

      I want to make a deeper analysis in this situation

      1. The dude steals 30% ---> his range:22+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A6o+, K9o+, Q9o+, JTo, T9o

      2. His Fold to resteal 13% ---> he fold 13% of hands from this range :22+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A6o+, K9o+, Q9o+, JTo, T9o.

      after he folds 13% he remains with this range: 22+, A2s+, K7s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A8o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo



      4. I assume he 4bets JJ+ AQs, AK-----> His range on the flop is TT-22, AJs-A2s, K7s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, AQo-A8o, K9o+, QTo+, JTo (23.8%)


      5. Our equity:

      Board: T:club: 9:spade: J:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    58.33%  57.27%   1.05% { TT-22, AJs-A2s, K7s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, AQo-A8o, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
      MP3    41.67%  40.62%   1.05% { AcKc }



      6. Conclusion: Even if we have gutshot and overcards, I think we better not cbet here, because our perceived range does not hit this bord+his range hits this bord very well, and the probability that he will fold after our semibluff cbet is very low.


      Any mistakes in my analysis ?
      Thanks
  • 1 reply
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,316
      Hey Staselu,

      Analysis looks good.

      Originally posted by staselu
      6. Conclusion: Even if we have gutshot and overcards, I think we better not cbet here, because our perceived range does not hit this bord+his range hits this bord very well, and the probability that he will fold after our semibluff cbet is very low.
      I agree with your conclusion that cbetting is probably not good here. So many of villains hands have a pair or straightdraw or better. You are not getting enough folds as a bluff and your hand is clearly too weak to cbet for value in this spot. (Probably 36% equity or so vs the range that calls your cbet).