[NL2-NL10] NL10 AK flushdraw vs raise

    • Festfingre
      Festfingre
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.07.2011 Posts: 70
      Known Players:
      MP3: $15.65 - 157 bb
      CO: $10.15 - 102 bb
      BU: $13.67 - 137 bb
      SB: $14.34 - 143 bb
      BB: $10.46 - 105 bb

      0.05/0.10 No Limit Hold'em (5 Handed)
      Hand recorder for this hand: PokerStrategy.com SideKick 1.1.210.3

      Preflop: Hero is SB with A:club: , K:heart:
      Hero posts small blind ($0.05), BB posts big blind ($0.10), MP3 folds, CO raises for $0.30, BU folds, Hero 3-bets $0.95, BB folds, CO calls

      Flop: ($2.10 - 21 bb) J:heart: , T:heart: , 6:heart: (2 Players)
      Hero bets $1.30, CO raises for $4.99, Hero folds, CO gets uncalled back ($3.69)

      Hello

      Villain stats:
      vpip\pfr\af 18\18\12

      Did it make sense to bet for value in case my draw hit?
      And since i wasn't holding nut flush draw, would i ever be able to make
      a profitable call here (lets say his sizing was abit smaller)?

      A mathematical example would be awesome, i don't suck at math but
      i can't stop playing. The rest of the time i use to read strategy articles.

      Thanks
  • 1 reply
    • kymupa
      kymupa
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364
      Hello,

      I'd rather make it $1.1 preflop.

      Bet/folding the flop here looks fine. I really doubt that he will raise a mediocre made hand, so we are either up against a good made hand or a better draw.
      Even if he raised smaller I would still fold here - by the way calling will be the worst option here since we are OOP and we just have one card draw.

      A mathematical example would be awesome
      A mathematical example of calling here?

      Mathematically, calling here will be fine even against this sizing, but we have to look this at the point of playing.
      If we hit our flush draw we:
      - will call his shove, but he's only going to shove with Ahx and mostly going to check back with his sets/two pair etc.
      If we don't hit it though, he is most likely to continue with the aggression and this will result in us having to fold due to the pot odds since if we call we will be around break even.

      Best,
      Plamen