[NL20-NL50] NL25 SH zoom. 88 bottom set, 300bb deep.

    • Pkrpains
      Pkrpains
      Silver
      Joined: 04.10.2010 Posts: 382
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      SB ($29.38)
      BB ($25.07)
      UTG ($21.06)
      UTG+1 ($83.64)
      CO ($25)
      Hero ($73.34)

      Dealt to Hero 8:heart: 8:spade:

      UTG calls $0.25, UTG+1 raises to $1.25, fold, Hero calls $1.25, fold, fold, fold

      FLOP ($3.10) K:club: J:heart: 8:club:

      UTG+1 bets $2, Hero raises to $5.90, UTG+1 raises to $14, Hero calls $8.10

      TURN ($31.10) K:club: J:heart: 8:club: 4:spade:

      UTG+1 bets $25, Hero ?



      Only had 48 hands on villain, he was playing 20/16 so most likely a reg.
      thoughts?
  • 4 replies
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909
      Hey,

      He raises the limper from MP so his range should be quite decent to start with. On the flop it's far from the best you can get but your hand is still very strong. When you raise, what do you expect him to call? It's clearly +EV raise and you will get value but I want to hear from you what you think you get called by. At the same time, what do you think he would fold? Now you are left with the part of his range he 3bets and you get the range he gets with on the turn.

      From that range, can you call this bet and a river shove 100% of the time? When he is betting this big he is not planning on giving up almost ever imo. It's either something he views as a big enough bet to commit a good draw or value. What is his value range apart from the obvious KK and JJ?

      Being 300bb deep on NL25 vs MP, Zoom format so not very aggressive game I think flopped bottom set is not a stack off as a default. It depends a lot how the money goes in, not just how much.

      Answer what I asked so far then we can discuss the hand more. :)
    • Pkrpains
      Pkrpains
      Silver
      Joined: 04.10.2010 Posts: 382
      Originally posted by EmanuelC16
      Hey,

      He raises the limper from MP so his range should be quite decent to start with. On the flop it's far from the best you can get but your hand is still very strong. When you raise, what do you expect him to call? It's clearly +EV raise and you will get value but I want to hear from you what you think you get called by. At the same time, what do you think he would fold? Now you are left with the part of his range he 3bets and you get the range he gets with on the turn.

      From that range, can you call this bet and a river shove 100% of the time? When he is betting this big he is not planning on giving up almost ever imo. It's either something he views as a big enough bet to commit a good draw or value. What is his value range apart from the obvious KK and JJ?

      Being 300bb deep on NL25 vs MP, Zoom format so not very aggressive game I think flopped bottom set is not a stack off as a default. It depends a lot how the money goes in, not just how much.

      Answer what I asked so far then we can discuss the hand more. :)
      When I raise on the flop, I expect him to call hands like AQcc, AJcc, QTs, maybe 9Ts if he opens that. AK, KJ is also a possibility.

      He folds all his air, pairs like 99-TT, maybe some J's too. But draws - I think he is not folding them. Yet when he re-raises flop, only draw I can think of is QTcc.

      So after he reraises flop... Imo it's KK, JJ, QTcc, maybe KJ. Vs that range we have 51% equity. But if we remove KJ, we're left with only 13%.

      I guess turn is a crying fold?

      Thanks :heart:
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909
      If you have 51% vs a get it in range, you can get it in on the flop but you probably make him fold QTcc and other combo draws?

      I am not very experienced with deep stack play but what I do know is that you have to be able to make even tougher calls and folds. To me, his huge turn bet looks like a vbet and I would actually consider folding the set here. You expect him to call a lot worse which I do to but I don't expect him to 3bet flop with much worse. Do you have such a sicko crazy image that he commits 300bb without the nuts? :)
    • Pkrpains
      Pkrpains
      Silver
      Joined: 04.10.2010 Posts: 382
      No, I shouldn't be perceived as such a psycho. I am definitely not a tightest guy at the tables, but also not that crazy.

      So yeah, I guess turn is a fold, but man, does it take lots of discipline. I did not have enough of it and called him down and obviously saw KK in front of me, but oh well, this is how we learn from mistakes. :)