[NL20-NL50] Fr50 Kk

    • Evante
      Evante
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.12.2009 Posts: 833
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.25/$0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)

      Known players:
      BB:
      $64.37
      MP3:
      $50.00
      CO:
      $82.43
      BU:
      $64.79
      SB (Hero):
      $50.00


      Preflop: Hero is SB with K, K.
      MP3 folds, CO raises to $1.50, BU folds, Hero raises to $5.00, BB raises to $11.00, CO folds, Hero raises to $50.25, BB calls $39.00.

      Flop: ($101.5) 4, 4, 2 (2 players)


      Turn: ($101.5) 9 (2 players)


      River: ($101.5) 2 (2 players)


      Final Pot: $101.5.


      Villain 16/9/2.4 AF over 1.8k hands.

      4bet 4.8% (21), 4bet range 0.6 % (21)

      open 4bet 3.3%(60)

      WTSD 28% wins 48%.


      Good EV in the long run?
  • 5 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,698
      Hi.

      Well this is KK. Don't see how wrong we can go shipping here. Of course his 4bet stats are overly tight. But we can't be too sure that he never 4bets with anything less than AA so I think jamming here is fine.

      If this sample size is larger, then it's very possible that he only does it with AA. AA is 0.45% of starting hands. So it is actually a possible spot to fold. But I don't think your 1.8k sample is quite large enough to fold here.

      Thanks.
    • Evante
      Evante
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.12.2009 Posts: 833
      so we just follow the "fold no cowboys pre" creed ya.

      is 5k a good sample or maybe even 10k?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,698
      5k May be enough to hero-fold here.

      But firstly, is he even calling 3bets with a wide range? What's his fold to 3bet? If he's being super nitty then I don't think 3betting KK even is a good idea. We can just 3bet a bunch of air and flat monsters and play them more aggressively on the Flop.
    • Evante
      Evante
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.12.2009 Posts: 833
      ops sorry sir forgot to include CO stats

      CO stats is 39/18/ 50% steal over 75%
      at that moment his fold to 3bet is 0%(1)

      the above stats is for BB.

      CO is kinda a fish thats why i 3betted him
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,698
      Oooops. I got confused with the stats and the various players.

      Ok now I think it's a fold. I think this guy never cold 4bets with anything less than KK+. He probably coldcalls AK and QQ or even folds it immediately. I think that when people raise and face a 3bet, they tend to 4bet or call lighter than if they were not involved in the hand (because of better pot odds after investing the initial 3BB in the raise).

      I would be more willing to put my faith in the not so large sample size of 1.8k hands given that VPIP/PFR/3b/4b stats show that he's a huge nit, and huge nits don't mess around with 4bets.