[NL2-NL10] Nl4 KQs

    • ilidek
      Joined: 06.07.2010 Posts: 3,089
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.04(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($6.89)
      BB ($8.76)
      CO ($1.17)
      BTN ($4.56)

      Dealt to Hero K:heart: Q:heart:

      fold, BTN raises to $0.12, Hero calls $0.10, BB calls $0.08

      FLOP ($0.36) 7:heart: 2:heart: K:spade:

      Hero checks, BB checks, BTN bets $0.20, Hero calls $0.20, BB raises to $1, BTN folds, Hero calls $0.80

      TURN ($2.56) 7:heart: 2:heart: K:spade: 4:club:

      Hero checks, BB bets $7.64 (AI), Hero calls $5.77 (AI)

      RIVER ($14.10) 7:heart: 2:heart: K:spade: 4:club: J:club:

      I've thought it was good play because I've thought this guy was a agro fish. Anyway after this I have a look at his stats and I find out he wasn't that agressiv:

      42/31 50h
      agression: Tot/F/T/R
      1.7 / 2.0 / 0.8 / 5.0
      37% / 35% / 31% / 45%
      WTSD 41%, WWSF 59% (only 50 hands)

      Anyway I am doing my SR and I find out something. On the River I need to win 40% to be b/e [ 5.77 / 5.77*2+2.56 ]

      What do you think about his range? Board is mega dry. He don't look like FD. He would probably make gay-size-donk. There is only 1 combination of KK, he may play like this 77 / 22 (18% equity vs sets, ~31% vs sets + 72,K7,K2) But still it’s hard to hit those hands and if I add to his range something like: QQ+ than I have 36% AA = 72 so in this case it change nothing. What do you think about this play? Pre I called because I wanted to play with this dude. I hit one of best hand I could hit do you think fold on T is an option?
  • 1 reply
    • kymupa
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364

      Preflop calling is fine.

      Usually, on the flop, our hand is good enough to raise BU's cbet and go broke here but if you had any reads about BB calling lighter in these spots calling is definitely fine.
      When he raises though, I think calling is fine.

      On the turn I prefer folding.
      As you said, we need 40% equity to be break even, and without having the information that he is capable of donk his stack with total air here I think folding is by far the best play. Usually, when they play like this, they have a good hand and I would wait for a better spot.
      Also, he needs to have a decent amount of bluffs here, apart from his top range, and we will be around slightly winners.