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[NL20-NL50] NL50 SH - QTs: tp vs nit

    • Lunitis
      Joined: 22.02.2009 Posts: 20,136
      MP: 47/16

      BU: 17/12
      2.3 af
      72% fold vs cbet flop
      0% fold vs cbet turn (2)
      757 hands

      BB: $33.26 (66.5 bb)
      UTG: $104.58 (209.2 bb)
      MP: $41.03 (82.1 bb)
      Hero (CO): $62.69 (125.4 bb)
      BTN: $19.25 (38.5 bb)
      SB: $32.65 (65.3 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with T:spade: Q:spade:
      UTG folds, MP calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2, BTN calls $2, 3 folds

      Flop: ($5.25) 6:club: Q:heart: 2:heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $3.50, BTN calls $3.50

      Turn: ($12.25) 2:spade: (2 players)
      Hero ?
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      I would bet half pot vs such a shallow stack. We also want to risk less with our cbet bluffs. Betting large just encourages him to fold hands worse than QX.

      Turn is a clear check. His preflop range is so tight, and his fold vs cbet flop is so low. I think he almost always have QX here at the very least, and vs a very tight range of stronger QX and flush draws, I don't think we can have a profitable c/c here. So I just check/fold/

      So this boils down to whether we even have a profitable cbet in the first place. Cbet bluffing is definitely very +EV vs this guy. But if he just folds so often then maybe we shouldn't cbet this weak QX hand on the Flop for value.