[NL20-NL50] T9s flush vs. river raise in limped pot

    • AchillesBG
      AchillesBG
      Gold
      Joined: 06.02.2011 Posts: 4,562
      Ongame Network $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2101600
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      CO: $84.12 - VPIP: 43, PFR: 27, 3B: 23, AF: 1.1, Hands: 49
      BTN: $74.36 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 12, 3B: 5, AF: 2.0, Hands: 1940
      SB: $50.00 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 18, 3B: 6, AF: 3.9, Hands: 1518
      Hero (BB): $49.25 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 16, 3B: 6, AF: 3.0, Hands: 24221
      UTG: $11.75 - VPIP: 65, PFR: 22, 3B: 11, AF: 2.4, Hands: 88
      MP: $15.30 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 14, 3B: 4, AF: 2.3, Hands: 72

      Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with T :club: 9 :club:
      UTG calls $0.50, 1 fold, CO calls $0.50, 2 folds, Hero checks

      Flop: ($1.75) A :club: 2 :club: 6 :diamond: (3 players)
      Hero bets $1.25, UTG folds, CO calls $1.25

      Turn: ($4.25) 4 :club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $3.00, CO calls $3

      River: ($10.25) 3 :spade: (2 players)
      Hero bets $7.00, CO raises to $31.25, Hero folds

      Sizings on flop and turn? Maybe bigger on the turn?

      On the river, i think betting is fine. After the raise, i don`t expect him to raise anything but a flush. I need 33% to call, and vs. this range it`s close:

      MP2 65.38% 65.38% 0.00% QcJc, Kc8c, Qc8c, Jc8c, Kc7c, Qc7c, Jc7c, 8c7c, Kc6c, Qc6c, Jc6c, 8c6c, 7c6c, Kc5c, Qc5c, Jc5c, 8c5c, 7c5c, 6c5c, 5c4c, Kc3c, Qc3c, Jc3c, 8c3c, 7c3c, 6c3c, 5c3c
      MP3 34.62% 34.62% 0.00% Tc9c

      But perhaps he raises some of the weaker flushes on the turn?
  • 1 reply
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Heya,

      I would usually bet 1-2bb bigger on the turn and definitely 4-5bb bigger on the river given the bigger turn size.

      As played, Why do you think he would only raise weaker flushes before the river? Have you seen a tendency in this vs most people on your stakes? It could be correct but I never found someone being more likely to just call a higher flush than a lower one here.

      Anyway, I would say it's as close as you put it there. It's actually maaaybe less close in the sense that people don't raise for thin value either and he doesn't limp in all worse flushing cards meaning he has more higher suited cards than the lower stuff so it's a fold. Nice hand imo! Great that you had the self control to fold what seems like a super hand in a close spot.