[NL2-NL10] nFlush on paired board...

    • Imimba1
      Imimba1
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      Poker Stars $5.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2101629
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BTN: $5.00 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 12, 3B: 6, AF: 1,3, Hands: 242
      SB: $5.64 - VPIP: 40, PFR: 9, 3B: 4, AF: 0,9, Hands: 277, WTS:42, cc:45%
      BB: $2.11 - VPIP: 11, PFR: 5, 3B: 0, AF: 1,0, Hands: 19
      Hero (UTG): $5.00 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 16, 3B: 4, AF: 2,0, Hands: 102948
      MP: $5.14 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 20, 3B: 10, AF: 0,0, Hands: 35
      CO: $4.44 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 13, 3B: 2, AF: 7,6, Hands: 440

      Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is UTG with J :spade: A :spade:
      Hero raises to $0.15, 3 folds, SB calls $0.13, 1 fold

      Flop: ($0.35) Q :heart: 8 :spade: 6 :spade: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.18, SB calls $0.18

      Turn: ($0.71) 7 :spade: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.56, SB calls $0.56

      River: ($1.83) 7 :heart: (2 players)
      SB bets $0.60, Hero?
      MP2 54.17% 54.17% 0.00% AsJs
      MP3 45.83% 45.83% 0.00% 77, Q7s, 87s, 76s, AsKs, AsQs, KsQs, AsJs, KsJs, QsJs, AsTs, KsTs, QsTs, JsTs, As9s, Ks9s, Qs9s, Js9s, Ts9s, As8s, Ks8s, Qs8s, Js8s, Ts8s, 9s8s, As7s, Ks7s, Js7s, Ts7s, 9s7s, As6s, Ks6s, Qs6s, Js6s, Ts6s, 9s6s, 8s6s, As5s, Ks5s, Qs5s, Js5s, Ts5s, 9s5s, 8s5s, 7s5s, 6s5s, As4s, Ks4s, Qs4s, 5s4s, As3s, Ks3s, Qs3s, As2s, Ks2s, Qs2s, Q7o, T9o, 87o, 76o (lot of :spade: :spade: hands+Q7, 87,76,Q7,77 (FH+quads)+straight)
  • 7 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Imimba,

      Preflop: looks fine

      Postflop: Flop cbet is fine and we can also consider adding one BB there to a bet of 0.23 or so.

      Turn is a good card because we can still get value from worse, plenty of worse.

      That 7 only really helps 87/Q7/76 and thats a very small portion of his range. He also has flushes, Qx hands, etc.

      I think it's unrealistic to add 76o to his range there, first because he isn't that loose preflop, and second because he may actually fold some 76 on the flop.

      So to me this looks a lot like a blocker bet with a weaker hand like Qx so I would look to value raise to about 1.8 or so. And since he is so passive we can't really expect him to shove much worse so we can still consider raise/folding. Of course if we are not sure about what he can shove we can't fold or we can just shove ourselves.
    • Imimba1
      Imimba1
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      The problem with raise/fold, that I can imagine him 3betting worse flushes aswell. Is this unlikely? Can bad players see, that the board is paired?... So if I raise, I could NOT fold here.

      Just for the curious people.
      7c6c
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      A lot of these passive guys will just call with a small flush so I think we can be confident in a fold if he shoves.

      That's just my opinion though and it takes a lot of discipline to make that fold.
    • CPallo
      CPallo
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.04.2012 Posts: 4,343
      I agree with judge here, fishermans who are passive will never 3-bet that river with weak flush or non-nutty hand. It's just unlikely. Raise/fold would be the best plan here.
    • Imimba1
      Imimba1
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      +1
    • Imimba1
      Imimba1
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      +1
    • Imimba1
      Imimba1
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      +1