[NL20-NL50] AQ spewy

    • mlatasrb
      mlatasrb
      Gold
      Joined: 01.04.2012 Posts: 2,720
      iPoker - $0.20 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BB: 108.4 BB
      UTG: 102.5 BB
      Hero (MP): 100 BB
      CO: 99 BB
      BTN: 102 BB
      SB: 297.35 BB

      SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q:diamond: A:spade:

      UTG raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, CO calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold

      Flop: (10.5 BB, 3 players) Q:club: K:club: 9:heart:
      UTG bets 7.85 BB, Hero calls 7.85 BB, fold

      Turn: (26.2 BB, 2 players) J:heart:
      UTG checks, Hero bets 16 BB, UTG calls 16 BB

      River: (58.2 BB, 2 players) 5:diamond:
      UTG checks, Hero bets 73.15 BB, fold

      Hero shows Q:diamond: A:spade: (One Pair, Queens)
      Hero wins 55.3 BB


      UTG 243 hands VP 24, PFR 18, fold 3bet 94, cbet 50

      Flop:
      Is call flop ok? He might have KJ, KQ, AK, and also fd. I dont think that people cbet 3way on this board with less than Kx, or fd? So is it fold?


      Turn: Is it ok to try to fold his Kx with bet on turn?

      When he calls, he usually has Kx which is afraid now of Tx, and maybe still fd.
      Now on river I did spewy thing, I wanted to fold his Kx, he looks regg so I hoped that he folds his AK, KQ, KJ here. He needs to fold > 56% of time to be profitable, and I guess I have it given his line. So I expect here to be break even in the worst case, and if I check, sometimes I win against missed fd, but I think more often I lose 6$.
      If he calls, and I lose, he will see that I played spewy, which can be +EV in future because with nuts I almost always overbet river especially on boards where opponents are likely to hit something.
  • 1 reply
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi mlatasrb,

      Preflop: looks fine

      Postflop: on this board and with another guy behind I agree that we should just fold.

      As played, unless villain is a huge station, he will have a hard time calling with anything other than a Tx. His range for calling turn also includes some sets and flush draws so it's possible we got him to fold a flush draw on the river but I also think he can fold 1p hands and some 2p hands so I think your line is fine (after the flop mistake).