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[NL20-NL50] nl50 AK sh

    • jules97
      Joined: 10.06.2012 Posts: 1,449
      MP reg

      CUT 64/17
      17% 3bet
      38% flop aggression freq (8/21)
      18% donk
      6/8 fold to cbet
      calls all 3bets
      wts 30%
      w%sd 33%
      losing 300 bb/100

      hadn't seen any crazy overbets like this so far

      What range would you put him on?

      PokerStars - €0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      Hero (BTN): €76.94
      SB: €58.67
      BB: €53.43
      UTG: €50.64
      CO: €42.46

      SB posts SB €0.25, BB posts BB €0.50

      Pre Flop: (pot: €0.75) Hero has A:club: K:spade:

      UTG raises to €1.50, CO calls €1.50, Hero raises to €6.50, fold, fold, fold, CO calls €5.00

      Flop: (€15.25, 2 players) Q:heart: T:club: A:heart:
      CO bets €35.96 and is all-in, fold

      CO wins €14.56
  • 1 reply
    • EmanuelC16
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909

      When he is losing at 300bb/100 I would look at how many hands you have with him. This can be a case of tilt in which case you should probably snap call this.

      I would usually put him on around 75% combos of KJ, AT, AQ, Tx with flushdraws, other flusdraws, Tx of hearts and basically all good equity hands. I assume at least 25% of them check to call or raise not donk shove like this.

      He is not very passive post, calls all 3bets so he can have quite a wide range. You also don't block any flushdraws so it makes me want to call more.

      If we really give him just a range that makes sense it's a fold ofc:

      Board: A:heart: Q:heart: T:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    27.45%  25.00%   2.45% { AcKs }
      MP3    72.55%  70.11%   2.45% { TT, AQs, ATs, KJs, QTs, KhTh, JhTh, Jh9h, Th9h, 9h8h, AQo, ATo, KJo, QTo }

      The reason I am thinking about calling this huge overbet is the low W$SD and huge losing rate that can cause tilt if acheived recently.

      If you add a few tilt or spew combos you get a call:

      Board: A:heart: Q:heart: T:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    42.38%  40.28%   2.10% { AcKs }
      MP3    57.62%  55.52%   2.10% { TT, AQs-ATs, KJs, QTs, KhTh, JhTh, Jh9h, Th9h, 9h8h, AQo-A9o, KJo, QTo }

      You don't win huge if you would have the tilt read so it would be a fold if you think he is just 'faking' tilt so to speak which is just impossible to tell imo. The low variance route is to fold and lose a little in a worst case scenario instead of flipping very very often for little money. Think about your mindset as well: calling here and being wrong can make you tilt and lose way more in the next hands than what a correct call would earn you.