[NL20-NL50] JJ limper

    • mlatasrb
      mlatasrb
      Gold
      Joined: 01.04.2012 Posts: 2,720
      iPoker - $0.20 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      Hero (BB): 124.5 BB
      UTG: 111.05 BB
      MP: 185.35 BB
      CO: 130 BB
      BTN: 100 BB
      SB: 90.6 BB

      SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J:heart: J:diamond:

      fold, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 0.5 BB, Hero raises to 4 BB, SB calls 3 BB

      Flop: (8 BB, 2 players) 9:diamond: 5:club: 7:spade:
      SB bets 8 BB, Hero calls 8 BB

      Turn: (24 BB, 2 players) A:diamond:
      SB bets 24 BB, fold

      SB wins 22.8 BB


      9 hands VPiP 33


      Is my call flop ok? He might do it with Top pair, 8x, 6x, depends how aggro he is, but also with 2 pair, straight, set overpair... and I dont know him.

      Turn easy fold, probably good card for me. He keeps barreling, I doubt that he has A here, because he continued barreling in a second. So it means he has no QQ,KK, AK because he wouldn't bet pot size with AK, AA. Still I can't do much, because now even he doesnt have even TT.
  • 5 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      Turn is an easy call. He does not rep anything.
      If he could have ax he could easily have any broadway here including kq kj jt qj. Not givig him credit for an ace yet.

      If he bets river im not necessarily folding too
    • mlatasrb
      mlatasrb
      Gold
      Joined: 01.04.2012 Posts: 2,720
      Originally posted by mbml
      Hi.

      Turn is an easy call. He does not rep anything.
      If he could have ax he could easily have any broadway here including kq kj jt qj. Not givig him credit for an ace yet.

      If he bets river im not necessarily folding too
      So what do you think he has that we beat?
      I was also not afraid of A at all, it just tells me he has no Ax, he has no TT+, no top pair, middle pair so I win only against bluff. He is unknown, so when he barrels pot size flop and turn, he either has 2 pair (which he has in his limping fish range) made straight, or set, or I could only hope on turn that he has a pair plus gutshot or total air.
      So I wanted to make a note about him, and next time call down if I see him barreling like that.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      The more polarized he is, the easier calling becomes on the Turn. In holdem, it's way easier to have air than to have 2pairs or better.

      97s (2 combos)
      57s (2 combos)
      68s (4 combos)
      Sets (9 combos)

      17 combos

      This is actually such a narrow range. We get 33% pot odds on the Turn so we just need to have 33% equity vs his range (of course this assumes he's never bluffing River which is an erroneous assumption).

      It's so easy for him to show up with so many random draws or pair + gutshots like JT T8 J8 78 76 56. I also think it is way likelier that he checkraises nutted hands as opposed to donk betting. So We should be discounting sets and straights very heavily but I'm not going to.

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 51.65% 51.65% 0.00% JJ
      MP3 48.35% 48.35% 0.00% 99, 77, 55, JTs, J8s, T8s, 97s, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, JTo

      Maybe we can add a few random AX here to reduce our turn equity but I think this is such a clear call.
    • mlatasrb
      mlatasrb
      Gold
      Joined: 01.04.2012 Posts: 2,720
      Yeah, I agree with your logic.

      One thing is clear here, he is a fish! And fish usually tends to play passive (except when he is aggro fish). So as you say, it doesnt make sense that he hits nuts and then doesnt check raise, but donks pot size (which scares most of players having medium or weak hand). But, still he is a fish, and he doesnt know what is initiative, what is cbet, that if he checks I will most likely cbet and he gets more money...
      So I think against real fish, we can't make always those decision, like turn is A and it is a scare card... he deosnt care about scare card, and what I could have, and what I think he has.

      So imo, we can't really be sure if he is playing 57o because you excluded them.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Yeah he is just randomly betting, and JJ is a very strong hand from an absolute point of view. So easy call, you don't need to think too much when your opponent is just someone who is randomly clicking buttons